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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Jonathan Micallef won · SUB R2

Elo1551

Elo1491

Jonathan MicallefvsOban ElliottUFC Prediction Result

UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · Saturday, January 31, 2026Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Jonathan Micallef won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:31

Style matchupJonathan Micallef: Well-roundedvsOban Elliott: Elusive striker

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Jonathan Micallef wins(72.3%)

Actual result: Jonathan Micallef wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jonathan Micallef at -126 American odds

+$79 profit

$179 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Jonathan Micallef (53.5%).
Jonathan Micallef has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jonathan Micallef

Red Corner

Oban Elliott

Blue Corner

-126

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+108

(48%)

1551

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'0"

195.58 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jonathan MicallefW2 streak

oldest →

vs Kevin Jousset · Feb 25

DECvs Themba Gorimbo · May 26

latest

Oban Elliott

oldest →

vs Val Woodburn · Feb 24

vs Preston Parsons · Jul 24

KOvs Bassil Hafez · Nov 24

vs Seokhyeon Ko · Jun 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jonathan MicallefMetricOban Elliott

3.85

Strikes / min

3.62

3.64

Strikes absorbed / min

2.24

56%

Strike defense

61%

1.08

TDs / 15 min

1.52

66%

Takedown defense

52%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.21Δ 1.17 — meaningful gap+1.38

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jonathan MicallefOban Elliott

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jonathan Micallef(3 fights)Oban Elliott(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +59.8|Blue -59.8

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +133.0|Blue -133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jonathan MicallefTargetOban Elliott

By target zone

27% acc · 68%

Head

46% acc · 85%

56% acc · 26%

Body

33% acc · 3%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

100% acc · 13%

By position

30% acc · 84%

Distance

47% acc · 88%

50% acc · 16%

Clinch

71% acc · 13%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jonathan Micallef rounds

even

Oban Elliott rounds

Round 1Oban Elliott edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:35

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:05Control

Round 2Oban Elliott edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control1:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 59

Sig Strikes

40 / 82

32%

Sig Str %

49.5%

30 / 70

Total Strikes

47 / 89

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 2

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:35

Ctrl Time

1:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Oban Elliott	21 / 49	27 / 55	0 / 2	0
1	Jonathan Micallef	11 / 36	20 / 45	0 / 0	0
2	Oban Elliott	19 / 33	20 / 34	0 / 0	0
2	Jonathan Micallef	8 / 23	10 / 25	1 / 1	1

Jonathan Micallef

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights2

Oban Elliott

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights5