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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Jonathan Micallef won · U-DEC R3

Elo1551

Elo1491

Jonathan MicallefvsKevin JoussetUFC Prediction Result

UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · Saturday, February 8, 2025Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Jonathan Micallef won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJonathan Micallef: Well-roundedvsKevin Jousset: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Kevin Jousset wins(62.2%)

Actual result: Jonathan Micallef wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kevin Jousset at -215 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kevin Jousset has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jonathan Micallef (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jonathan Micallef

Red Corner

Kevin Jousset

Blue Corner

+180

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-215

(68%)

1551

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'2"

195.58 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jonathan MicallefW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Oban Elliott · Jan 26

DECvs Themba Gorimbo · May 26

latest

Kevin Jousset

oldest →

SUBvs Kiefer Crosbie · Sep 23

vs Song Kenan · Dec 23

KOvs Bryan Battle · Sep 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jonathan MicallefMetricKevin Jousset

3.85

Strikes / min

6.61

3.64

Strikes absorbed / min

6.49

56%

Strike defense

50%

1.08

TDs / 15 min

0.69

66%

Takedown defense

100%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.21evenly matched on net striking+0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jonathan MicallefKevin Jousset

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jonathan Micallef(3 fights)Kevin Jousset(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +60.3|Blue -60.3

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +49.3|Blue -49.3

Grappler Score

Red +49.5|Blue -49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jonathan MicallefTargetKevin Jousset

By target zone

34% acc · 61%

Head

29% acc · 48%

82% acc · 33%

Body

50% acc · 25%

71% acc · 6%

Leg

82% acc · 27%

By position

44% acc · 98%

Distance

40% acc · 99%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

50% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jonathan Micallef rounds

even

Kevin Jousset rounds

Round 1Jonathan Micallef edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:09

Knockdowns1

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Jonathan Micallef edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Jonathan Micallef edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

85 / 192

Sig Strikes

67 / 168

44.7%

Sig Str %

39.7%

89 / 197

Total Strikes

71 / 173

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:09

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Kevin Jousset	16 / 39	20 / 44	0 / 0
1	Jonathan Micallef	25 / 49	29 / 54	0 / 0
2	Kevin Jousset	25 / 60	25 / 60	0 / 0
2	Jonathan Micallef	30 / 69	30 / 69	0 / 0
3	Kevin Jousset	26 / 69	26 / 69	0 / 0
3	Jonathan Micallef	30 / 74	30 / 74	0 / 0

Jonathan Micallef

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights2

Kevin Jousset

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights4