Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Jonathan Martinez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1504

Elo1454

Jonathan MartinezvsVince MoralesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira · Saturday, May 21, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jonathan Martinez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJonathan Martinez: Pressure fightervsVince Morales: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Jonathan Martinez wins(71.5%)

Actual result: Jonathan Martinez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jonathan Martinez at -280 American odds

+$36 profit

$136 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Vince Morales enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Jonathan Martinez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jonathan Martinez

Red Corner

Vince Morales

Blue Corner

-280

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+225

(31%)

1504

Elo

1454

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jonathan MartinezL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Cub Swanson · Oct 22

vs Said Nurmagomedov · Mar 23

KOvs Adrian Yanez · Oct 23

vs Jose Aldo · May 24

vs Marcus McGhee · Nov 24

latest

Vince MoralesL5 streak

oldest →

vs Miles Johns · Nov 22

vs Taylor Lapilus · Sep 24

vs Elijah Smith · Feb 25

vs Raul Rosas Jr. · Mar 25

DECvs Colby Thicknesse · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jonathan MartinezMetricVince Morales

4.44

Strikes / min

3.54

4.09

Strikes absorbed / min

3.91

56%

Strike defense

54%

0.38

TDs / 15 min

0.71

68%

Takedown defense

63%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.35evenly matched on net striking-0.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jonathan MartinezVince Morales

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jonathan Martinez(10 fights)Vince Morales(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +49.8|Blue -49.8

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -84.0|Blue +84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jonathan MartinezTargetVince Morales

By target zone

42% acc · 47%

Head

26% acc · 65%

82% acc · 20%

Body

65% acc · 29%

85% acc · 33%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

57% acc · 98%

Distance

32% acc · 94%

67% acc · 2%

Clinch

67% acc · 4%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jonathan Martinez rounds

even

Vince Morales rounds

Round 1Jonathan Martinez edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jonathan Martinez edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Jonathan Martinez edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns2

Control0:41

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

88 / 154

Sig Strikes

51 / 153

57.3%

Sig Str %

34%

88 / 154

Total Strikes

62 / 164

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:41

Ctrl Time

0:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Vince Morales	15 / 35	15 / 35	0 / 0
1	Jonathan Martinez	24 / 40	24 / 40	0 / 0
2	Vince Morales	16 / 56	16 / 56	0 / 0
2	Jonathan Martinez	36 / 56	36 / 56	0 / 0
3	Vince Morales	20 / 62	31 / 73	0 / 0
3	Jonathan Martinez	28 / 58	28 / 58	2 / 2

Jonathan Martinez

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15

Vince Morales

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11