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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Marcus McGhee won · U-DEC R3

Elo1504

Elo1528

Jonathan MartinezvsMarcus McGheeUFC Prediction Result

UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · Saturday, November 16, 2024New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Marcus McGhee won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJonathan Martinez: Pressure fightervsMarcus McGhee: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Marcus McGhee wins(56.5%)

Actual result: Marcus McGhee wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marcus McGhee at -115 American odds

+$87 profit

$187 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marcus McGhee has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jonathan Martinez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jonathan Martinez

Red Corner

Marcus McGhee

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-115

(53%)

1504

Elo

1528

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jonathan Martinez

oldest →

vs Vince Morales · May 22

KOvs Cub Swanson · Oct 22

vs Said Nurmagomedov · Mar 23

KOvs Adrian Yanez · Oct 23

vs Jose Aldo · May 24

latest

Marcus McGhee

oldest →

SUBvs Journey Newson · Apr 23

KOvs JP Buys · Aug 23

KOvs Gaston Bolanos · Jan 24

vs Petr Yan · Jul 25

DECvs John Yannis · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jonathan MartinezMetricMarcus McGhee

4.44

Strikes / min

5.50

4.09

Strikes absorbed / min

3.64

56%

Strike defense

57%

0.38

TDs / 15 min

0.31

68%

Takedown defense

90%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.35Δ 1.51 — meaningful gap+1.86

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jonathan MartinezMarcus McGhee

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jonathan Martinez(10 fights)Marcus McGhee(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -24.2|Blue +24.2

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -112.0|Blue +112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jonathan MartinezTargetMarcus McGhee

By target zone

32% acc · 50%

Head

36% acc · 59%

38% acc · 6%

Body

67% acc · 18%

88% acc · 44%

Leg

83% acc · 24%

By position

44% acc · 96%

Distance

100

45% acc · 98%

67% acc · 4%

Clinch

67% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jonathan Martinez rounds

even

Marcus McGhee rounds

Round 1Marcus McGhee edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Marcus McGhee edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

42Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:57

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 108

Sig Strikes

102 / 223

43%

Sig Str %

46%

49 / 109

Total Strikes

105 / 226

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:57

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Marcus McGhee	33 / 75	33 / 75	0 / 0
1	Jonathan Martinez	7 / 18	7 / 18	0 / 0
2	Marcus McGhee	42 / 93	45 / 96	0 / 0
2	Jonathan Martinez	17 / 47	17 / 47	0 / 0
3	Marcus McGhee	27 / 55	27 / 55	0 / 0
3	Jonathan Martinez	24 / 43	25 / 44	0 / 0

Jonathan Martinez

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15

Marcus McGhee

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights7