Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Jonathan Martinez won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1504

Elo1521

Jonathan MartinezvsAdrian YanezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · Saturday, October 14, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jonathan Martinez won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:26

Style matchupJonathan Martinez: Pressure fightervsAdrian Yanez: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Jonathan Martinez wins(51.9%)

Actual result: Jonathan Martinez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jonathan Martinez at -125 American odds

+$80 profit

$180 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Jonathan Martinez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jonathan Martinez

Red Corner

Adrian Yanez

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1504

Elo

1521

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jonathan MartinezL2 streak

oldest →

vs Vince Morales · May 22

KOvs Cub Swanson · Oct 22

vs Said Nurmagomedov · Mar 23

vs Jose Aldo · May 24

vs Marcus McGhee · Nov 24

latest

Adrian Yanez

oldest →

KOvs Rob Font · Apr 23

KOvs Vinicius Salvador · May 24

vs Daniel Marcos · Dec 24

vs Ricky Simon · Mar 26

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jonathan MartinezMetricAdrian Yanez

4.44

Strikes / min

5.96

4.09

Strikes absorbed / min

5.24

56%

Strike defense

56%

0.38

TDs / 15 min

0.00

68%

Takedown defense

75%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.35evenly matched on net striking+0.72

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jonathan MartinezAdrian Yanez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jonathan Martinez(10 fights)Adrian Yanez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -17.4|Blue +17.4

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jonathan MartinezTargetAdrian Yanez

By target zone

47% acc · 19%

Head

15% acc · 45%

0% acc

Body

83% acc · 50%

71% acc · 81%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

62% acc · 100%

Distance

26% acc · 85%

Clinch

50% acc · 15%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jonathan Martinez rounds

even

Adrian Yanez rounds

Round 1Jonathan Martinez edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:12

Knockdowns1

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Jonathan Martinez edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:07

Knockdowns1

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 58

Sig Strikes

20 / 72

62%

Sig Str %

26.5%

36 / 60

Total Strikes

20 / 73

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:19

Ctrl Time

0:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Adrian Yanez	14 / 46	14 / 46	0 / 0
1	Jonathan Martinez	16 / 30	16 / 32	0 / 0
2	Adrian Yanez	6 / 26	6 / 27	0 / 0
2	Jonathan Martinez	20 / 28	20 / 28	0 / 0

Jonathan Martinez

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15

Adrian Yanez

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11