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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Jonathan Brookins won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1352

Elo1354

Jonathan BrookinsvsVagner RochaUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Ellenberger · Wednesday, February 15, 2012Omaha, Nebraska, USA

Official fight result

Jonathan Brookins won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:32

Style matchupJonathan Brookins: Well-roundedvsVagner Rocha: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Vagner Rocha wins(69.0%)

Actual result: Jonathan Brookins wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vagner Rocha at +155 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jonathan Brookins enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Vagner Rocha threatens submissions; Jonathan Brookins has lost 67% of fights by sub.
Jonathan Brookins has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jonathan Brookins (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jonathan Brookins

Red Corner

Vagner Rocha

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+155

(39%)

1352

Elo

1354

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'10"

187.96 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jonathan BrookinsL3 streak

oldest →

vs Michael Johnson · Dec 10

vs Erik Koch · Sep 11

SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Jun 12

SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Dec 12

latest

Vagner Rocha

oldest →

vs Donald Cerrone · Jun 11

SUBvs Cody McKenzie · Sep 11

SUBvs Jake Matthews · Nov 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jonathan BrookinsMetricVagner Rocha

2.69

Strikes / min

2.64

3.63

Strikes absorbed / min

4.50

56%

Strike defense

48%

1.94

TDs / 15 min

1.40

80%

Takedown defense

50%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.94evenly matched on net striking-1.86

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jonathan BrookinsVagner Rocha

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jonathan Brookins(5 fights)Vagner Rocha(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -1.9|Blue +1.9

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jonathan BrookinsTargetVagner Rocha

By target zone

62% acc · 72%

Head

33% acc · 57%

67% acc · 22%

Body

67% acc · 29%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

100% acc · 14%

By position

50% acc · 50%

Distance

44% acc · 100%

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 50%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jonathan Brookins rounds

even

Vagner Rocha rounds

Round 1Jonathan Brookins edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control0:07

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

18 / 28

Sig Strikes

7 / 16

64%

Sig Str %

43%

18 / 28

Total Strikes

7 / 16

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:07

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Vagner Rocha	7 / 16	7 / 16	0 / 0	0
1	Jonathan Brookins	18 / 28	18 / 28	1 / 1	0

Jonathan Brookins

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights5

Vagner Rocha

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights4