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Lightweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Jonathan Brookins won · U-DEC R3

Elo1352

Elo1502

Jonathan BrookinsvsMichael JohnsonUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP vs Team Koscheck Finale · Saturday, December 4, 2010Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jonathan Brookins won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJonathan Brookins: Well-roundedvsMichael Johnson: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Jonathan Brookins wins(51.5%)

Actual result: Jonathan Brookins wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jonathan Brookins at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Jonathan Brookins

Red Corner

Michael Johnson

Blue Corner

-230

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+190

(34%)

1352

Elo

1502

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

5'10"

187.96 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jonathan BrookinsL2 streak

oldest →

vs Erik Koch · Sep 11

KOvs Vagner Rocha · Feb 12

SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Jun 12

SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Dec 12

latest

Michael Johnson

oldest →

KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 23

vs Darrius Flowers · Feb 24

KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Dec 24

vs Daniel Zellhuber · Jul 25

KOvs Drew Dober · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jonathan BrookinsMetricMichael Johnson

2.69

Strikes / min

4.27

3.63

Strikes absorbed / min

3.78

56%

Strike defense

58%

1.94

TDs / 15 min

0.57

80%

Takedown defense

81%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.94Δ 1.43 — meaningful gap+0.49

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jonathan Brookins(5 fights)Michael Johnson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -150.6|Blue +150.6

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jonathan BrookinsTargetMichael Johnson

By target zone

48% acc · 100%

Head

44% acc · 80%

Body

67% acc · 7%

Leg

100% acc · 13%

By position

23% acc · 22%

Distance

41% acc · 60%

50% acc · 6%

Clinch

77% acc · 33%

70% acc · 72%

Ground

40% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jonathan Brookins rounds

even

Michael Johnson rounds

Round 1Michael Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:37

Knockdowns0

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:10Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Jonathan Brookins edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control4:40

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Jonathan Brookins edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns2

Control4:30

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 67

Sig Strikes

30 / 62

51.3%

Sig Str %

46%

57 / 95

Total Strikes

38 / 70

3 / 13

TDs

0 / 1

33%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

9:47

Ctrl Time

1:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Michael Johnson	24 / 49	25 / 50	0 / 1
1	Jonathan Brookins	7 / 29	7 / 29	0 / 7
2	Michael Johnson	4 / 8	8 / 12	0 / 0
2	Jonathan Brookins	15 / 22	32 / 40	1 / 3
3	Michael Johnson	2 / 5	5 / 8	0 / 0
3	Jonathan Brookins	10 / 16	18 / 26	2 / 3

Jonathan Brookins

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights5

Michael Johnson

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights32