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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Erik Koch won · U-DEC R3

Elo1352

Elo1492

Jonathan BrookinsvsErik KochUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger · Saturday, September 17, 2011New Orleans, Louisiana, USA

Official fight result

Erik Koch won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJonathan Brookins: Well-roundedvsErik Koch: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Jonathan Brookins wins(80.0%)

Actual result: Erik Koch wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jonathan Brookins at +185 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Jonathan Brookins

Red Corner

Erik Koch

Blue Corner

+185

(35%)

Vegas Odds

-200

(67%)

1352

Elo

1492

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

5'10"

187.96 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jonathan BrookinsL2 streak

oldest →

vs Michael Johnson · Dec 10

KOvs Vagner Rocha · Feb 12

SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Jun 12

SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Dec 12

latest

Erik Koch

oldest →

KOvs Daron Cruickshank · May 14

SUBvs Shane Campbell · May 16

vs Clay Guida · Jun 17

vs Bobby Green · Jan 18

vs Kyle Stewart · Jul 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jonathan BrookinsMetricErik Koch

2.69

Strikes / min

2.33

3.63

Strikes absorbed / min

2.82

56%

Strike defense

47%

1.94

TDs / 15 min

1.02

80%

Takedown defense

81%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.94evenly matched on net striking-0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jonathan BrookinsErik Koch

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jonathan Brookins(5 fights)Erik Koch(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -139.9|Blue +139.9

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +105.0|Blue -105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jonathan BrookinsTargetErik Koch

By target zone

28% acc · 48%

Head

25% acc · 57%

60% acc · 39%

Body

86% acc · 15%

75% acc · 13%

Leg

92% acc · 28%

By position

13% acc · 17%

Distance

28% acc · 60%

68% acc · 83%

Clinch

67% acc · 40%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jonathan Brookins rounds

even

Erik Koch rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control3:30

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 2Jonathan Brookins edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control2:55

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control2:13

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 59

Sig Strikes

40 / 110

41.3%

Sig Str %

36.7%

29 / 67

Total Strikes

86 / 158

1 / 20

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

8:38

Ctrl Time

0:33

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Erik Koch	16 / 31	32 / 47	0 / 0
1	Jonathan Brookins	10 / 20	14 / 24	0 / 6
2	Erik Koch	13 / 41	33 / 62	0 / 0
2	Jonathan Brookins	7 / 14	7 / 15	1 / 8
3	Erik Koch	11 / 38	21 / 49	0 / 0
3	Jonathan Brookins	6 / 25	8 / 28	0 / 6

Jonathan Brookins

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights5

Erik Koch

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10