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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Charles Oliveira won · SUB R2

Elo1352

Elo1521

Jonathan BrookinsvsCharles OliveiraUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Live Finale · Friday, June 1, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Charles Oliveira won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:42

Style matchupJonathan Brookins: Well-roundedvsCharles Oliveira: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Jonathan Brookins wins(67.8%)

Actual result: Charles Oliveira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jonathan Brookins at +185 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Charles Oliveira threatens submissions; Jonathan Brookins has lost 67% of fights by sub.
Jonathan Brookins has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jonathan Brookins (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jonathan Brookins

Red Corner

Charles Oliveira

Blue Corner

+185

(35%)

Vegas Odds

-200

(67%)

1352

Elo

1521

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'10"

187.96 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jonathan Brookins

oldest →

vs Michael Johnson · Dec 10

vs Erik Koch · Sep 11

KOvs Vagner Rocha · Feb 12

SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Dec 12

latest

Charles OliveiraW2 streak

oldest →

vs Arman Tsarukyan · Apr 24

vs Michael Chandler · Nov 24

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 25

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Oct 25

vs Max Holloway · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jonathan BrookinsMetricCharles Oliveira

2.69

Strikes / min

3.23

3.63

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

56%

Strike defense

48%

1.94

TDs / 15 min

2.29

80%

Takedown defense

54%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

2.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.94Δ 1.12 — meaningful gap+0.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jonathan BrookinsCharles Oliveira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jonathan Brookins(5 fights)Charles Oliveira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -169.4|Blue +169.4

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -18.0|Blue +18.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jonathan BrookinsTargetCharles Oliveira

By target zone

35% acc · 81%

Head

40% acc · 50%

44% acc · 15%

Body

77% acc · 24%

50% acc · 4%

Leg

100% acc · 26%

By position

34% acc · 81%

Distance

51% acc · 76%

50% acc · 19%

Clinch

89% acc · 19%

Ground

50% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jonathan Brookins rounds

even

Charles Oliveira rounds

Round 1Charles Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control0:53

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 2Charles Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:14

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:58Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 74

Sig Strikes

42 / 76

34.5%

Sig Str %

57%

27 / 74

Total Strikes

48 / 82

1 / 2

TDs

1 / 2

50%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:07

Ctrl Time

0:59

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Charles Oliveira	33 / 61	33 / 61	0 / 0	0
1	Jonathan Brookins	19 / 43	19 / 43	1 / 1	0
2	Charles Oliveira	9 / 15	15 / 21	1 / 2	1
2	Jonathan Brookins	8 / 31	8 / 31	0 / 1	1

Jonathan Brookins

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights5

Charles Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights36