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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Kevin Lee won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1466

Jon TuckvsKevin LeeUFC Prediction Result

UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · Saturday, September 27, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Kevin Lee won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Jon Tuck wins(71.1%)

Actual result: Kevin Lee wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jon Tuck at +220 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kevin Lee enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jon Tuck threatens submissions; Kevin Lee has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Jon Tuck has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Kevin Lee has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Kevin Lee has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jon Tuck

Red Corner

Kevin Lee

Blue Corner

+220

(31%)

Vegas Odds

-240

(71%)

1491

Elo

1466

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jon Tuck

oldest →

SUBvs Tae Hyun Bang · May 15

vs Josh Emmett · May 16

vs Damien Brown · Nov 16

SUBvs Takanori Gomi · Jun 17

vs Drew Dober · Aug 18

latest

Kevin LeeL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · May 19

KOvs Gregor Gillespie · Nov 19

SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Mar 20

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Aug 21

SUBvs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Jul 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jon TuckMetricKevin Lee

3.00

Strikes / min

3.88

3.74

Strikes absorbed / min

3.60

60%

Strike defense

50%

0.42

TDs / 15 min

3.18

50%

Takedown defense

75%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.74Δ 1.02 — meaningful gap+0.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jon TuckKevin Lee

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jon Tuck(9 fights)Kevin Lee(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +25.2|Blue -25.2

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +29.0|Blue -29.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jon TuckTargetKevin Lee

By target zone

22% acc · 43%

Head

40% acc · 72%

77% acc · 33%

Body

81% acc · 28%

100% acc · 23%

Leg

By position

33% acc · 67%

Distance

29% acc · 32%

50% acc · 23%

Clinch

70% acc · 26%

60% acc · 10%

Ground

67% acc · 42%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jon Tuck rounds

even

Kevin Lee rounds

Round 1Kevin Lee edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:34Control

Round 2Kevin Lee edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:07

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:37Control

Round 3Kevin Lee edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

32Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:35Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 80

Sig Strikes

74 / 157

36%

Sig Str %

46%

68 / 125

Total Strikes

100 / 190

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 9

—

TD %

47%

Sub Att

Rev

0:07

Ctrl Time

8:46

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kevin Lee	22 / 48	27 / 53	2 / 3	0
1	Jon Tuck	12 / 27	24 / 40	0 / 0	1
2	Kevin Lee	20 / 47	27 / 59	1 / 4	0
2	Jon Tuck	13 / 29	32 / 51	0 / 0	1
3	Kevin Lee	32 / 62	46 / 78	1 / 2	0
3	Jon Tuck	5 / 24	12 / 34	0 / 0	0

Jon Tuck

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights9

Kevin Lee

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights19