← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Josh Emmett won · S-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1461

Jon TuckvsJosh EmmettUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski · Sunday, May 8, 2016Rotterdam, Zuid-Holland, Netherlands

Official fight result

Josh Emmett won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Jon Tuck wins(65.8%)

Actual result: Josh Emmett wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jon Tuck at -110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Josh Emmett enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Jon Tuck

Red Corner

Josh Emmett

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1491

Elo

1461

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'6"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jon Tuck

oldest →

vs Kevin Lee · Sep 14

SUBvs Tae Hyun Bang · May 15

vs Damien Brown · Nov 16

SUBvs Takanori Gomi · Jun 17

vs Drew Dober · Aug 18

latest

Josh EmmettL3 streak

oldest →

vs Ilia Topuria · Jun 23

KOvs Bryce Mitchell · Dec 23

vs Lerone Murphy · Apr 25

SUBvs Youssef Zalal · Oct 25

KOvs Kevin Vallejos · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jon TuckMetricJosh Emmett

3.00

Strikes / min

3.67

3.74

Strikes absorbed / min

4.52

60%

Strike defense

59%

0.42

TDs / 15 min

1.07

50%

Takedown defense

43%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.74evenly matched on net striking-0.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jon TuckJosh Emmett

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jon Tuck(9 fights)Josh Emmett(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +30.0|Blue -30.0

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -47.6|Blue +47.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jon TuckTargetJosh Emmett

By target zone

19% acc · 55%

Head

28% acc · 59%

75% acc · 23%

Body

48% acc · 20%

86% acc · 23%

Leg

73% acc · 20%

By position

30% acc · 98%

Distance

36% acc · 100%

20% acc · 2%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jon Tuck rounds

even

Josh Emmett rounds

Round 1Josh Emmett edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:05

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Jon Tuck edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:01

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Fight Stats

Totals

53 / 180

Sig Strikes

54 / 152

29%

Sig Str %

35.7%

54 / 181

Total Strikes

54 / 153

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 2

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Josh Emmett	17 / 42	17 / 42	0 / 1
1	Jon Tuck	12 / 46	12 / 46	0 / 0
2	Josh Emmett	18 / 61	18 / 62	0 / 0
2	Jon Tuck	19 / 61	19 / 61	0 / 0
3	Josh Emmett	19 / 49	19 / 49	0 / 1
3	Jon Tuck	22 / 73	23 / 74	0 / 1

Jon Tuck

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights9

Josh Emmett

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights17