Lightweight

3 Rounds

Jon Tuck won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1491

Elo1354

Jon TuckvsJake LindseyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Khabilov · Saturday, June 7, 2014Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA

Official fight result

Jon Tuck won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:47

Model Prediction: Jon Tuck wins(67.0%)

Actual result: Jon Tuck wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jon Tuck at -150 American odds

+$67 profit

$167 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jon Tuck threatens submissions; Jake Lindsey has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Jon Tuck has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Jake Lindsey (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Jon Tuck

Red Corner

Jake Lindsey

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1491

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'11"

Height

5'11"

185.42 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jon Tuck

oldest →

SUBvs Tae Hyun Bang · May 15

vs Josh Emmett · May 16

vs Damien Brown · Nov 16

SUBvs Takanori Gomi · Jun 17

vs Drew Dober · Aug 18

latest

Jake LindseyL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Olivier Aubin-Mercier · Oct 14

KOvs Joe Duffy · Mar 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jon TuckMetricJake Lindsey

3.00

Strikes / min

3.44

3.74

Strikes absorbed / min

4.01

60%

Strike defense

46%

0.42

TDs / 15 min

0.65

50%

Takedown defense

50%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.74evenly matched on net striking-0.57

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jon TuckJake Lindsey

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jon Tuck(9 fights)Jake Lindsey(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +136.8|Blue -136.8

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -48.8|Blue +48.8

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jon TuckTargetJake Lindsey

By target zone

44% acc · 61%

Head

46% acc · 33%

94% acc · 33%

Body

87% acc · 53%

75% acc · 7%

Leg

70% acc · 14%

By position

40% acc · 41%

Distance

56% acc · 51%

85% acc · 24%

Clinch

83% acc · 49%

73% acc · 35%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jon Tuck rounds

even

Jake Lindsey rounds

Round 1Jon Tuck edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control2:05

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:18Control

Round 2Jake Lindsey edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control1:40

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:08Control

Round 3Jon Tuck edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control2:39

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

46 / 83

Sig Strikes

49 / 75

63.3%

Sig Str %

64.5%

86 / 126

Total Strikes

117 / 144

3 / 5

TDs

0 / 2

77.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

6:24

Ctrl Time

2:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jake Lindsey	20 / 31	61 / 73	0 / 1
1	Jon Tuck	21 / 35	32 / 48	1 / 3
2	Jake Lindsey	29 / 44	54 / 69	0 / 1
2	Jon Tuck	15 / 37	27 / 49	1 / 1
3	Jake Lindsey	0 / 0	2 / 2	0 / 0
3	Jon Tuck	10 / 11	27 / 29	1 / 1

Jon Tuck

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights9

Jake Lindsey

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach—

Fights3