← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Neil Magny won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1505

Jon ManleyvsNeil MagnyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche · Saturday, February 23, 2013Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Neil Magny won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Neil Magny wins(52.6%)

Actual result: Neil Magny wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Neil Magny at -145 American odds

+$69 profit

$169 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Neil Magny has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Neil Magny has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jon Manley

Red Corner

Neil Magny

Blue Corner

+135

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-145

(59%)

1490

Elo

1505

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'3"

190.5 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jon ManleyNo prior UFC fights on record.

Neil Magny

oldest →

KOvs Michael Morales · Aug 24

KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 24

KOvs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Aug 25

SUBvs Jake Matthews · Sep 25

SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jon ManleyMetricNeil Magny

1.13

Strikes / min

3.40

4.33

Strikes absorbed / min

2.44

45%

Strike defense

51%

1.00

TDs / 15 min

2.17

20%

Takedown defense

55%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-3.20Δ 4.16 — meaningful gap+0.96

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jon Manley(1 fights)Neil Magny(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -15.2|Blue +15.2

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jon ManleyTargetNeil Magny

By target zone

16% acc · 71%

Head

45% acc · 65%

29% acc · 12%

Body

79% acc · 23%

60% acc · 18%

Leg

100% acc · 12%

By position

16% acc · 71%

Distance

48% acc · 51%

63% acc · 29%

Clinch

67% acc · 34%

Ground

56% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jon Manley rounds

even

Neil Magny rounds

Round 1Neil Magny edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control2:27

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:49Control

Round 2Neil Magny edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control2:02

24Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:12Control

Round 3Neil Magny edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:59

22Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:05Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 85

Sig Strikes

65 / 120

21.7%

Sig Str %

57%

35 / 112

Total Strikes

97 / 158

1 / 13

TDs

4 / 5

8.3%

TD %

83%

Sub Att

Rev

5:28

Ctrl Time

5:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Neil Magny	19 / 27	28 / 39	0 / 0
1	Jon Manley	5 / 27	16 / 41	0 / 6
2	Neil Magny	24 / 39	39 / 57	2 / 2
2	Jon Manley	5 / 16	11 / 25	1 / 4
3	Neil Magny	22 / 54	30 / 62	2 / 3
3	Jon Manley	7 / 42	8 / 46	0 / 3

Jon Manley

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach—

Fights1

Neil Magny

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights37