Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Jon Madsen won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Jon MadsenvsMostapha Al-TurkUFC Prediction Result

UFC 112: Invincible · Saturday, April 10, 2010Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Jon Madsen won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Jon Madsen wins(70.1%)

Actual result: Jon Madsen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jon Madsen at -245 American odds

+$41 profit

$141 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jon Madsen has 28pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jon Madsen has 70pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Mostapha Al-Turk has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jon Madsen

Red Corner

Mostapha Al-Turk

Blue Corner

-245

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+205

(33%)

1490

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'2"

182.88 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jon Madsen

oldest →

vs Karlos Vemola · Jul 10

KOvs Gilbert Yvel · Oct 10

KOvs Mike Russow · Mar 11

latest

Mostapha Al-TurkNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jon MadsenMetricMostapha Al-Turk

2.46

Strikes / min

1.36

1.18

Strikes absorbed / min

3.61

81%

Strike defense

53%

1.32

TDs / 15 min

0.00

70%

Takedown defense

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.28Δ 3.53 — meaningful gap-2.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jon MadsenMostapha Al-Turk

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jon Madsen(4 fights)Mostapha Al-Turk(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jon MadsenTargetMostapha Al-Turk

By target zone

29% acc · 81%

Head

9% acc · 55%

83% acc · 16%

Body

50% acc · 10%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

100% acc · 35%

By position

33% acc · 97%

Distance

16% acc · 100%

Clinch

33% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jon Madsen rounds

even

Mostapha Al-Turk rounds

Round 1Jon Madsen edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Mostapha Al-Turk edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Jon Madsen edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control0:06

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 97

Sig Strikes

20 / 127

32%

Sig Str %

15.3%

32 / 97

Total Strikes

20 / 127

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mostapha Al-Turk	5 / 30	5 / 30	0 / 0
1	Jon Madsen	7 / 23	7 / 23	0 / 0
2	Mostapha Al-Turk	10 / 49	10 / 49	0 / 0
2	Jon Madsen	7 / 21	7 / 21	0 / 0
3	Mostapha Al-Turk	5 / 48	5 / 48	0 / 0
3	Jon Madsen	18 / 53	18 / 53	1 / 1

Jon Madsen

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4

Mostapha Al-Turk

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights1