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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Jon Madsen won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1352

Jon MadsenvsKarlos VemolaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin · Saturday, July 3, 2010Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jon Madsen won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Jon Madsen wins(76.9%)

Actual result: Jon Madsen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jon Madsen at +125 American odds

+$125 profit

$225 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jon Madsen has 44pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jon Madsen has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jon Madsen

Red Corner

Karlos Vemola

Blue Corner

+125

(44%)

Vegas Odds

-145

(59%)

1490

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jon Madsen

oldest →

vs Mostapha Al-Turk · Apr 10

KOvs Gilbert Yvel · Oct 10

KOvs Mike Russow · Mar 11

latest

Karlos VemolaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Seth Petruzelli · Nov 10

vs Ronny Markes · Aug 11

SUBvs Mike Massenzio · May 12

SUBvs Francis Carmont · Jul 12

SUBvs Caio Magalhaes · Jun 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jon MadsenMetricKarlos Vemola

2.46

Strikes / min

1.67

1.18

Strikes absorbed / min

2.13

81%

Strike defense

37%

1.32

TDs / 15 min

1.93

70%

Takedown defense

31%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.28Δ 1.74 — meaningful gap-0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jon MadsenKarlos Vemola

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jon Madsen(4 fights)Karlos Vemola(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +138.0|Blue -138.0

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -48.3|Blue +48.3

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jon MadsenTargetKarlos Vemola

By target zone

52% acc · 38%

Head

8% acc · 13%

83% acc · 14%

Body

77% acc · 63%

90% acc · 49%

Leg

100% acc · 25%

By position

27% acc · 11%

Distance

15% acc · 25%

87% acc · 70%

Clinch

80% acc · 75%

88% acc · 19%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jon Madsen rounds

even

Karlos Vemola rounds

Round 1Jon Madsen edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control3:07

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 2Jon Madsen edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control3:23

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 3Jon Madsen edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control3:21

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 53

Sig Strikes

16 / 42

64%

Sig Str %

38%

118 / 140

Total Strikes

21 / 47

3 / 4

TDs

0 / 3

83.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

9:51

Ctrl Time

0:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Karlos Vemola	7 / 12	10 / 15	0 / 3	0
1	Jon Madsen	21 / 27	43 / 50	1 / 1	0
2	Karlos Vemola	2 / 8	4 / 10	0 / 0	0
2	Jon Madsen	12 / 16	45 / 52	1 / 1	0
3	Karlos Vemola	7 / 22	7 / 22	0 / 0	1
3	Jon Madsen	4 / 10	30 / 38	1 / 2	0

Jon Madsen

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4

Karlos Vemola

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights6