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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Jon Madsen won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1490
Elo1351
Gilbert Yvel

Jon MadsenvsGilbert YvelUFC Prediction Result

UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez · Saturday, October 23, 2010Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Jon Madsen won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:48

Model Prediction: Jon Madsen wins(63.4%)

Actual result: Jon Madsen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jon Madsen at -225 American odds

+$44 profit

$144 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jon Madsen has 31pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Jon Madsen has 45pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Gilbert Yvel has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jon Madsen
Red Corner
VS
Gilbert Yvel
Blue Corner
-225
(69%)
Vegas Odds
+185
(35%)
1490
Elo
1351
46
Age
50
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'2"
182.88 cm
Reach
195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jon Madsen
oldest →
W
vs Mostapha Al-Turk · Apr 10
W
vs Karlos Vemola · Jul 10
L
KOvs Mike Russow · Mar 11
latest
Gilbert Yvel
oldest →
L
vs Ben Rothwell · Jun 10
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jon MadsenMetricGilbert Yvel
2.46
Strikes / min
1.05
1.18
Strikes absorbed / min
1.78
81%
Strike defense
50%
1.32
TDs / 15 min
0.00
70%
Takedown defense
25%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.28Δ 2.01 — meaningful gap-0.73

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1526 vs 1487Strikes31.7 vs 18.0Takedowns1.3 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 1.00Form1.0 vs -1.0
Jon MadsenGilbert Yvel

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Jon Madsen(4 fights)Gilbert Yvel(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +139.4|Blue -139.4
Recent Form
Red +2.0|Blue -2.0
Striker Score
Red +1.5|Blue -1.5
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red -21.0|Blue +21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jon MadsenTargetGilbert Yvel

By target zone

18
58% acc · 100%
Head
0
0% acc
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
0
0% acc
0
Clinch
0
18
62% acc · 100%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Jon Madsen rounds
0
even
0
Gilbert Yvel rounds
Round 1Jon Madsen edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns1
Control0:43
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
18 / 31
Sig Strikes
0 / 2
58%
Sig Str %
0%
20 / 35
Total Strikes
0 / 2
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:43
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Gilbert Yvel0 / 20 / 20 / 00
1Jon Madsen18 / 3120 / 351 / 10

Jon Madsen

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights4

Gilbert Yvel

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights2