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Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Jon Jones won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1511

Elo1352

Jon JonesvsVladimir MatyushenkoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko · Sunday, August 1, 2010San Diego, California, USA

Official fight result

Jon Jones won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:52

Style matchupJon Jones: Elusive strikervsVladimir Matyushenko: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Jon Jones wins(60.3%)

Actual result: Jon Jones wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jon Jones at -752 American odds

+$13 profit

$113 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jon Jones enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Jon Jones has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Jon Jones has a 25cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jon Jones

Red Corner

Vladimir Matyushenko

Blue Corner

-752

(88%)

Vegas Odds

+602

(14%)

1511

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'0"

213.36 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jon JonesW5 streak

oldest →

vs Anthony Smith · Mar 19

vs Thiago Santos · Jul 19

vs Dominick Reyes · Feb 20

SUBvs Ciryl Gane · Mar 23

KOvs Stipe Miocic · Nov 24

latest

Vladimir MatyushenkoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Eliot Marshall · Mar 10

KOvs Alexandre Ferreira · Nov 10

KOvs Jason Brilz · Apr 11

KOvs Alexander Gustafsson · Dec 11

SUBvs Ryan Bader · Jan 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jon JonesMetricVladimir Matyushenko

4.38

Strikes / min

1.90

2.24

Strikes absorbed / min

1.62

64%

Strike defense

59%

1.89

TDs / 15 min

3.25

95%

Takedown defense

70%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.14Δ 1.86 — meaningful gap+0.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jon JonesVladimir Matyushenko

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jon Jones(10 fights)Vladimir Matyushenko(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +159.6|Blue -159.6

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jon JonesTargetVladimir Matyushenko

By target zone

100% acc · 80%

Head

0% acc

67% acc · 13%

Body

100% acc · 7%

Leg

By position

75% acc · 20%

Distance

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 80%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jon Jones rounds

even

Vladimir Matyushenko rounds

Round 1Jon Jones edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control0:54

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 16

Sig Strikes

0 / 5

93%

Sig Str %

17 / 18

Total Strikes

0 / 5

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:54

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Vladimir Matyushenko	0 / 5	0 / 5	0 / 0	0
1	Jon Jones	15 / 16	17 / 18	1 / 1	0

Jon Jones

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach84.0"

Fights19

Vladimir Matyushenko

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights6