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Light Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Jon Jones won · SUB R4
Elo1511
Jon Jones
Elo1491
Vitor Belfort

Jon JonesvsVitor BelfortUFC Prediction Result

UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort · Saturday, September 22, 2012Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Jon Jones won

SUB · Round 4 · 0:54

Model Prediction: Jon Jones wins(68.8%)

Actual result: Jon Jones wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jon Jones at -840 American odds

+$12 profit

$112 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jon Jones enters on a 5-fight win streak.
  • Jon Jones has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Jon Jones has 42pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Vitor Belfort (53.5%).
  • Jon Jones has a 25cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jon Jones
Red Corner
VS
Vitor Belfort
Blue Corner
-840
(89%)
Vegas Odds
+660
(13%)
1511
Elo
1491
39
Age
49
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'4"
Height
6'0"
213.36 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jon JonesW5 streak
oldest →
W
vs Anthony Smith · Mar 19
W
vs Thiago Santos · Jul 19
W
vs Dominick Reyes · Feb 20
W
SUBvs Ciryl Gane · Mar 23
W
KOvs Stipe Miocic · Nov 24
latest
Vitor Belfort
oldest →
W
KOvs Dan Henderson · Nov 15
L
KOvs Jacare Souza · May 16
L
KOvs Gegard Mousasi · Oct 16
W
vs Nate Marquardt · Jun 17
L
KOvs Lyoto Machida · May 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jon JonesMetricVitor Belfort
4.38
Strikes / min
1.59
2.24
Strikes absorbed / min
2.83
64%
Strike defense
50%
1.89
TDs / 15 min
1.02
95%
Takedown defense
53%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.14Δ 3.38 — meaningful gap-1.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1602 vs 1521Strikes42.5 vs 9.8Takedowns2.0 vs 0.4Sub Atts0.64 vs 0.47Form1.0 vs 0.6
Jon JonesVitor Belfort

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Jon Jones(10 fights)Vitor Belfort(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +20.4|Blue -20.4
Recent Form
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score
Red +1.5|Blue -1.5
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red -98.0|Blue +98.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jon JonesTargetVitor Belfort

By target zone

46
58% acc · 71%
Head
8
31% acc · 50%
5
50% acc · 8%
Body
3
60% acc · 19%
14
67% acc · 22%
Leg
5
100% acc · 31%

By position

23
44% acc · 35%
Distance
11
39% acc · 69%
0
0% acc
Clinch
4
67% acc · 25%
42
75% acc · 65%
Ground
1
50% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

4
Jon Jones rounds
0
even
0
Vitor Belfort rounds
Round 1Jon Jones edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns1
Control4:31
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Jon Jones edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control1:37
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Jon Jones edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control2:59
Knockdowns1
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:06Control
0Knockdowns
Round 4Jon Jones edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:18
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
65 / 110
Sig Strikes
16 / 36
59%
Sig Str %
46%
96 / 144
Total Strikes
22 / 43
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
9:25
Ctrl Time
0:06

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Vitor Belfort1 / 26 / 80 / 01
1Jon Jones19 / 2434 / 411 / 10
2Jon Jones23 / 4027 / 440 / 00
2Vitor Belfort6 / 166 / 160 / 00
3Vitor Belfort6 / 107 / 110 / 00
3Jon Jones18 / 3630 / 490 / 00
4Vitor Belfort3 / 83 / 80 / 00
4Jon Jones5 / 105 / 100 / 01

Jon Jones

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach84.0"
Fights19

Vitor Belfort

StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights13