Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jon Jones enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Jon Jones has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Jon Jones has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Jon Jones has a 20cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jon JonesW5 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Alexander Gustafsson · Dec 18W
vs Anthony Smith · Mar 19W
vs Dominick Reyes · Feb 20W
SUBvs Ciryl Gane · Mar 23W
KOvs Stipe Miocic · Nov 24 Thiago SantosL2 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Nov 20L
vs Aleksandar Rakic · Mar 21W
vs Johnny Walker · Oct 21L
vs Magomed Ankalaev · Mar 22L
KOvs Jamahal Hill · Aug 22 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jon JonesMetricThiago Santos
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+2.14evenly matched on net striking+1.15
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Jon JonesThiago Santos
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jon Jones(10 fights)Thiago Santos(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +79.2|Blue -79.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.6|Blue -1.6
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -7.0|Blue +7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Jon JonesTargetThiago Santos
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Thiago Santos edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:00
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Jon Jones edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:00
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Jon Jones edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:00
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Jon Jones edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:00
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Jon Jones edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:00
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
