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Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Jon Jones won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1511

Elo1494

Jon JonesvsStipe MiocicUFC Prediction Result

UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · Saturday, November 16, 2024New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Jon Jones won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:29

Style matchupJon Jones: Elusive strikervsStipe Miocic: Pressure fighter

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Jon Jones wins(79.3%)

Actual result: Jon Jones wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jon Jones at -550 American odds

+$18 profit

$118 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jon Jones enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Jon Jones has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jon Jones has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Jon Jones has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jon Jones

Red Corner

Stipe Miocic

Blue Corner

-550

(85%)

Vegas Odds

+410

(20%)

1511

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'4"

213.36 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jon JonesW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alexander Gustafsson · Dec 18

vs Anthony Smith · Mar 19

vs Thiago Santos · Jul 19

vs Dominick Reyes · Feb 20

SUBvs Ciryl Gane · Mar 23

latest

Stipe Miocic

oldest →

vs Francis Ngannou · Jan 18

KOvs Daniel Cormier · Jul 18

KOvs Daniel Cormier · Aug 19

vs Daniel Cormier · Aug 20

KOvs Francis Ngannou · Mar 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jon JonesMetricStipe Miocic

4.38

Strikes / min

4.67

2.24

Strikes absorbed / min

4.01

64%

Strike defense

52%

1.89

TDs / 15 min

1.74

95%

Takedown defense

65%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.14Δ 1.48 — meaningful gap+0.66

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jon JonesStipe Miocic

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jon Jones(10 fights)Stipe Miocic(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +17.5|Blue -17.5

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -707.0|Blue +707.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jon JonesTargetStipe Miocic

By target zone

77% acc · 73%

Head

32% acc · 65%

89% acc · 17%

Body

88% acc · 19%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 16%

By position

77% acc · 56%

Distance

39% acc · 86%

67% acc · 2%

Clinch

80% acc · 11%

87% acc · 42%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jon Jones rounds

even

Stipe Miocic rounds

Round 1Jon Jones edged it

Sig. strikes42

Takedowns1

Control3:37

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jon Jones edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Jon Jones edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:14

Knockdowns1

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

96 / 119

Sig Strikes

37 / 89

79%

Sig Str %

42.3%

104 / 128

Total Strikes

42 / 94

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:51

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Stipe Miocic	6 / 13	11 / 18	0 / 0
1	Jon Jones	42 / 48	49 / 56	1 / 1
2	Stipe Miocic	16 / 37	16 / 37	0 / 0
2	Jon Jones	20 / 28	20 / 28	0 / 0
3	Stipe Miocic	15 / 39	15 / 39	0 / 0
3	Jon Jones	34 / 43	35 / 44	0 / 0

Jon Jones

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach84.0"

Fights19

Stipe Miocic

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights19