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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Jon Jones won · SUB R2

Elo1511

Elo1491

Jon JonesvsRyan BaderUFC Prediction Result

UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort · Saturday, February 5, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jon Jones won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:20

Style matchupJon Jones: Elusive strikervsRyan Bader: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Ryan Bader wins(72.5%)

Actual result: Jon Jones wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ryan Bader at +258 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jon Jones enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Jon Jones has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Jon Jones has a 25cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jon Jones

Red Corner

Ryan Bader

Blue Corner

-285

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+258

(28%)

1511

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'2"

213.36 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jon JonesW5 streak

oldest →

vs Anthony Smith · Mar 19

vs Thiago Santos · Jul 19

vs Dominick Reyes · Feb 20

SUBvs Ciryl Gane · Mar 23

KOvs Stipe Miocic · Nov 24

latest

Ryan BaderW2 streak

oldest →

vs Phil Davis · Jan 15

vs Rashad Evans · Oct 15

KOvs Anthony Johnson · Jan 16

KOvs Ilir Latifi · Sep 16

KOvs Rogerio Nogueira · Nov 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jon JonesMetricRyan Bader

4.38

Strikes / min

2.82

2.24

Strikes absorbed / min

1.39

64%

Strike defense

71%

1.89

TDs / 15 min

3.37

95%

Takedown defense

80%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.14evenly matched on net striking+1.43

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jon JonesRyan Bader

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jon Jones(10 fights)Ryan Bader(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +20.8|Blue -20.8

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +55.0|Blue -55.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jon JonesTargetRyan Bader

By target zone

16% acc · 20%

Head

14% acc · 60%

100% acc · 50%

Body

0% acc

86% acc · 30%

Leg

100% acc · 40%

By position

34% acc · 50%

Distance

21% acc · 100%

Clinch

77% acc · 50%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jon Jones rounds

even

Ryan Bader rounds

Round 1Jon Jones edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control3:39

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jon Jones edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control0:44

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 42

Sig Strikes

5 / 24

51%

Sig Str %

14.5%

31 / 54

Total Strikes

8 / 27

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 2

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:23

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ryan Bader	0 / 7	2 / 9	0 / 1	0
1	Jon Jones	12 / 17	21 / 27	1 / 1	1
2	Ryan Bader	5 / 17	6 / 18	0 / 1	0
2	Jon Jones	8 / 25	10 / 27	1 / 1	2

Jon Jones

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach84.0"

Fights19

Ryan Bader

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights16