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Light Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Jon Jones won · U-DEC R5
Elo1511
Jon Jones
Elo1366

Jon JonesvsRashad EvansUFC Prediction Result

UFC 145: Jones vs Evans · Saturday, April 21, 2012Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Official fight result

Jon Jones won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupJon Jones: Elusive strikervsRashad Evans: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Jon Jones wins(65.7%)

Actual result: Jon Jones wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jon Jones at -510 American odds

+$20 profit

$120 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jon Jones enters on a 5-fight win streak.
  • Rashad Evans enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
  • Jon Jones has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Jon Jones has a 23cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jon Jones
Red Corner
VS
Rashad Evans
Blue Corner
-510
(84%)
Vegas Odds
+440
(19%)
1511
Elo
1366
39
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'0"
213.36 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jon JonesW5 streak
oldest →
W
vs Anthony Smith · Mar 19
W
vs Thiago Santos · Jul 19
W
vs Dominick Reyes · Feb 20
W
SUBvs Ciryl Gane · Mar 23
W
KOvs Stipe Miocic · Nov 24
latest
Rashad EvansL5 streak
oldest →
L
vs Ryan Bader · Oct 15
L
KOvs Glover Teixeira · Apr 16
L
vs Daniel Kelly · Mar 17
L
vs Sam Alvey · Aug 17
L
KOvs Anthony Smith · Jun 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jon JonesMetricRashad Evans
4.38
Strikes / min
2.14
2.24
Strikes absorbed / min
2.42
64%
Strike defense
63%
1.89
TDs / 15 min
2.98
95%
Takedown defense
73%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.14Δ 2.42 — meaningful gap-0.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1588 vs 1549Strikes36.2 vs 27.5Takedowns2.1 vs 3.4Sub Atts0.70 vs 0.00Form1.0 vs 1.0
Jon JonesRashad Evans

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Jon Jones(10 fights)Rashad Evans(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +145.7|Blue -145.7
Recent Form
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +49.0|Blue -49.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jon JonesTargetRashad Evans

By target zone

68
44% acc · 65%
Head
16
15% acc · 36%
19
51% acc · 18%
Body
13
48% acc · 29%
18
78% acc · 17%
Leg
16
80% acc · 36%

By position

86
46% acc · 82%
Distance
39
28% acc · 87%
18
72% acc · 17%
Clinch
6
55% acc · 13%
1
50% acc · 1%
Ground
0
0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

5
Jon Jones rounds
0
even
0
Rashad Evans rounds
Round 1Jon Jones edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:00
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Jon Jones edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns0
Control0:17
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Jon Jones edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:00
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Jon Jones edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control0:00
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Jon Jones edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns1
Control0:43
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:09Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
105 / 214
Sig Strikes
45 / 151
48.6%
Sig Str %
28.2%
116 / 228
Total Strikes
49 / 155
1 / 2
TDs
0 / 4
50%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:00
Ctrl Time
0:09

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Rashad Evans10 / 3011 / 310 / 00
1Jon Jones16 / 3917 / 400 / 00
2Rashad Evans16 / 3919 / 420 / 00
2Jon Jones21 / 4721 / 470 / 00
3Rashad Evans9 / 309 / 300 / 10
3Jon Jones20 / 4021 / 410 / 00
4Jon Jones23 / 4426 / 470 / 10
4Rashad Evans7 / 267 / 260 / 30
5Rashad Evans3 / 263 / 260 / 00
5Jon Jones25 / 4431 / 531 / 10

Jon Jones

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach84.0"
Fights19

Rashad Evans

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights12