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Light Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Jon Jones won · Submission R4
Elo1511
Jon Jones
Elo1490
Rampage Jackson

Jon JonesvsRampage JacksonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage · Saturday, September 24, 2011Denver, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Jon Jones won

Submission · Round 4 · 1:14

Model Prediction: Jon Jones wins(56.3%)

Actual result: Jon Jones wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jon Jones at -500 American odds

+$20 profit

$120 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jon Jones enters on a 5-fight win streak.
  • Jon Jones has a 28cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jon Jones
Red Corner
VS
Rampage Jackson
Blue Corner
-500
(83%)
Vegas Odds
+435
(19%)
1511
Elo
1490
39
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'1"
213.36 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jon JonesW5 streak
oldest →
W
vs Anthony Smith · Mar 19
W
vs Thiago Santos · Jul 19
W
vs Dominick Reyes · Feb 20
W
SUBvs Ciryl Gane · Mar 23
W
KOvs Stipe Miocic · Nov 24
latest
Rampage Jackson
oldest →
W
DECvs Lyoto Machida · Nov 10
W
DECvs Matt Hamill · May 11
L
DECvs Ryan Bader · Feb 12
L
DECvs Glover Teixeira · Jan 13
W
DECvs Fabio Maldonado · Apr 15
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jon JonesMetricRampage Jackson
4.38
Strikes / min
—
2.24
Strikes absorbed / min
—
64%
Strike defense
—
1.89
TDs / 15 min
—
95%
Takedown defense
—
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
—

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1562 vs 1517Strikes34.6 vs 36.7Takedowns2.3 vs 0.6Sub Atts0.50 vs 0.00Form1.0 vs 0.6
Jon JonesRampage Jackson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901500151015201530← oldermost recent →
Jon Jones(10 fights)Rampage Jackson(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +21.1|Blue -21.1
Recent Form
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red +70.0|Blue -70.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Jon Jones

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach84.0"
Fights19

Rampage Jackson

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights1