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Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Jon Jones won · U-DEC R5

Elo1511

Elo1497

Jon JonesvsOvince Saint PreuxUFC Prediction Result

UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux · Saturday, April 23, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jon Jones won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupJon Jones: Elusive strikervsOvince Saint Preux: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Jon Jones wins(79.0%)

Actual result: Jon Jones wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jon Jones at -720 American odds

+$14 profit

$114 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jon Jones enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Jon Jones has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jon Jones has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Ovince Saint Preux (53.5%).
Jon Jones has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jon Jones

Red Corner

Ovince Saint Preux

Blue Corner

-720

(88%)

Vegas Odds

+510

(16%)

1511

Elo

1497

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'4"

Height

6'3"

213.36 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jon JonesW5 streak

oldest →

vs Anthony Smith · Mar 19

vs Thiago Santos · Jul 19

vs Dominick Reyes · Feb 20

SUBvs Ciryl Gane · Mar 23

KOvs Stipe Miocic · Nov 24

latest

Ovince Saint Preux

oldest →

KOvs Tanner Boser · Jun 21

vs Mauricio Rua · May 22

KOvs Philipe Lins · Feb 23

vs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Mar 24

SUBvs Ryan Spann · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jon JonesMetricOvince Saint Preux

4.38

Strikes / min

3.03

2.24

Strikes absorbed / min

3.33

64%

Strike defense

47%

1.89

TDs / 15 min

1.09

95%

Takedown defense

67%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.14Δ 2.44 — meaningful gap-0.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jon JonesOvince Saint Preux

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jon Jones(10 fights)Ovince Saint Preux(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +14.3|Blue -14.3

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +399.0|Blue -399.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jon JonesTargetOvince Saint Preux

By target zone

56% acc · 33%

Head

26% acc · 51%

83% acc · 23%

Body

52% acc · 21%

71% acc · 44%

Leg

67% acc · 28%

By position

63% acc · 72%

Distance

32% acc · 81%

61% acc · 10%

Clinch

65% acc · 19%

95% acc · 17%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jon Jones rounds

even

Ovince Saint Preux rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:04

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:14

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Jon Jones edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:01

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Jon Jones edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns2

Control2:22

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Jon Jones edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control1:13

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

105 / 157

Sig Strikes

57 / 160

66.4%

Sig Str %

37.2%

111 / 163

Total Strikes

58 / 161

3 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:54

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ovince Saint Preux	12 / 31	13 / 32	0 / 0
1	Jon Jones	13 / 26	13 / 26	0 / 1
2	Ovince Saint Preux	17 / 39	17 / 39	0 / 0
2	Jon Jones	18 / 28	20 / 30	0 / 1
3	Ovince Saint Preux	11 / 40	11 / 40	0 / 0
3	Jon Jones	30 / 46	30 / 46	0 / 0
4	Jon Jones	26 / 29	27 / 30	2 / 2
4	Ovince Saint Preux	6 / 12	6 / 12	0 / 0
5	Ovince Saint Preux	11 / 38	11 / 38	0 / 0
5	Jon Jones	18 / 28	21 / 31	1 / 1

Jon Jones

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach84.0"

Fights19

Ovince Saint Preux

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights28