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Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Jon Jones won · SUB R2

Elo1511

Elo1491

Jon JonesvsLyoto MachidaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 140: Jones vs Machida · Saturday, December 10, 2011Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Jon Jones won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:26

Style matchupJon Jones: Elusive strikervsLyoto Machida: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Jon Jones wins(69.4%)

Actual result: Jon Jones wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jon Jones at -475 American odds

+$21 profit

$121 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jon Jones enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Jon Jones has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Lyoto Machida (53.5%).
Jon Jones has a 25cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jon Jones

Red Corner

Lyoto Machida

Blue Corner

-475

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+420

(19%)

1511

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'4"

Height

6'1"

213.36 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jon JonesW5 streak

oldest →

vs Anthony Smith · Mar 19

vs Thiago Santos · Jul 19

vs Dominick Reyes · Feb 20

SUBvs Ciryl Gane · Mar 23

KOvs Stipe Miocic · Nov 24

latest

Lyoto MachidaW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Luke Rockhold · Apr 15

KOvs Yoel Romero · Jun 15

KOvs Derek Brunson · Oct 17

vs Eryk Anders · Feb 18

KOvs Vitor Belfort · May 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jon JonesMetricLyoto Machida

4.38

Strikes / min

2.59

2.24

Strikes absorbed / min

1.57

64%

Strike defense

61%

1.89

TDs / 15 min

1.21

95%

Takedown defense

75%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.14Δ 1.12 — meaningful gap+1.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jon JonesLyoto Machida

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jon Jones(10 fights)Lyoto Machida(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +20.4|Blue -20.4

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -147.0|Blue +147.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jon JonesTargetLyoto Machida

By target zone

29% acc · 25%

Head

24% acc · 54%

46% acc · 25%

Body

50% acc · 15%

63% acc · 50%

Leg

80% acc · 31%

By position

35% acc · 58%

Distance

37% acc · 100%

78% acc · 29%

Clinch

0% acc

75% acc · 13%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jon Jones rounds

even

Lyoto Machida rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jon Jones edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control1:26

Knockdowns1

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 53

Sig Strikes

13 / 38

45%

Sig Str %

35%

26 / 55

Total Strikes

13 / 38

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 1

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:26

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Lyoto Machida	8 / 25	8 / 25	0 / 0	0
1	Jon Jones	8 / 27	8 / 27	0 / 0	0
2	Lyoto Machida	5 / 13	5 / 13	0 / 1	0
2	Jon Jones	16 / 26	18 / 28	1 / 2	1

Jon Jones

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach84.0"

Fights19

Lyoto Machida

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights16