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Light Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Jon Jones won · U-DEC R5
Elo1511
Jon Jones
Elo1388
Daniel Cormier

Jon JonesvsDaniel CormierUFC Prediction Result

UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier · Saturday, January 3, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jon Jones won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupJon Jones: Elusive strikervsDaniel Cormier: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Jon Jones wins(70.5%)

Actual result: Jon Jones wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jon Jones at -192 American odds

+$52 profit

$152 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jon Jones enters on a 5-fight win streak.
  • Jon Jones has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Jon Jones has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Jon Jones has a 30cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jon Jones
Red Corner
VS
Daniel Cormier
Blue Corner
-192
(66%)
Vegas Odds
+177
(36%)
1511
Elo
1388
39
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
5'11"
213.36 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jon JonesW5 streak
oldest →
W
vs Anthony Smith · Mar 19
W
vs Thiago Santos · Jul 19
W
vs Dominick Reyes · Feb 20
W
SUBvs Ciryl Gane · Mar 23
W
KOvs Stipe Miocic · Nov 24
latest
Daniel CormierL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Volkan Oezdemir · Jan 18
W
KOvs Stipe Miocic · Jul 18
W
SUBvs Derrick Lewis · Nov 18
L
KOvs Stipe Miocic · Aug 19
L
vs Stipe Miocic · Aug 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jon JonesMetricDaniel Cormier
4.38
Strikes / min
4.25
2.24
Strikes absorbed / min
2.92
64%
Strike defense
54%
1.89
TDs / 15 min
1.83
95%
Takedown defense
80%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.14evenly matched on net striking+1.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1653 vs 1556Strikes54.9 vs 50.3Takedowns2.0 vs 1.5Sub Atts0.67 vs 0.50Form1.0 vs 1.0
Jon JonesDaniel Cormier

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901500151015201530← oldermost recent →
Jon Jones(10 fights)Daniel Cormier(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +123.7|Blue -123.7
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Grappler Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff
Red +28.0|Blue -28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jon JonesTargetDaniel Cormier

By target zone

43
39% acc · 47%
Head
40
31% acc · 69%
34
83% acc · 37%
Body
11
58% acc · 19%
15
58% acc · 16%
Leg
7
44% acc · 12%

By position

51
41% acc · 55%
Distance
35
29% acc · 60%
40
77% acc · 43%
Clinch
22
52% acc · 38%
1
33% acc · 1%
Ground
1
50% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

4
Jon Jones rounds
1
even
0
Daniel Cormier rounds
Round 1Jon Jones edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns1
Control0:28
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control1:01
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
Round 3Jon Jones edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns0
Control0:32
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:22Control
Round 4Jon Jones edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns2
Control2:35
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:20Control
Round 5Jon Jones edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control2:16
4Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:52Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
92 / 178
Sig Strikes
58 / 165
53.4%
Sig Str %
35%
126 / 215
Total Strikes
78 / 191
3 / 5
TDs
1 / 8
50%
TD %
6.3%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
6:52
Ctrl Time
1:36

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Daniel Cormier18 / 4821 / 510 / 10
1Jon Jones25 / 5528 / 581 / 10
2Daniel Cormier18 / 4623 / 520 / 10
2Jon Jones16 / 3621 / 410 / 10
3Daniel Cormier15 / 4719 / 530 / 20
3Jon Jones24 / 4328 / 480 / 10
4Jon Jones16 / 2723 / 342 / 20
4Daniel Cormier3 / 168 / 220 / 00
5Daniel Cormier4 / 87 / 131 / 40
5Jon Jones11 / 1726 / 340 / 00

Jon Jones

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach84.0"
Fights19

Daniel Cormier

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights14