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Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Jon Jones won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1511

Elo1490

Jon JonesvsChael SonnenUFC Prediction Result

UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen · Saturday, April 27, 2013Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Jon Jones won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:33

Style matchupJon Jones: Elusive strikervsChael Sonnen: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Jon Jones wins(73.0%)

Actual result: Jon Jones wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jon Jones at -875 American odds

+$11 profit

$111 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jon Jones enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Jon Jones has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Chael Sonnen (53.5%).
Jon Jones has a 28cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jon Jones

Red Corner

Chael Sonnen

Blue Corner

-875

(90%)

Vegas Odds

+685

(13%)

1511

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'4"

Height

6'1"

213.36 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jon JonesW5 streak

oldest →

vs Anthony Smith · Mar 19

vs Thiago Santos · Jul 19

vs Dominick Reyes · Feb 20

SUBvs Ciryl Gane · Mar 23

KOvs Stipe Miocic · Nov 24

latest

Chael Sonnen

oldest →

SUBvs Brian Stann · Oct 11

vs Michael Bisping · Jan 12

KOvs Anderson Silva · Jul 12

SUBvs Mauricio Rua · Aug 13

KOvs Rashad Evans · Nov 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jon JonesMetricChael Sonnen

4.38

Strikes / min

3.08

2.24

Strikes absorbed / min

1.10

64%

Strike defense

62%

1.89

TDs / 15 min

3.81

95%

Takedown defense

66%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.14evenly matched on net striking+1.98

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jon JonesChael Sonnen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jon Jones(10 fights)Chael Sonnen(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +21.2|Blue -21.2

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -77.0|Blue +77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jon JonesTargetChael Sonnen

By target zone

73% acc · 80%

Head

0% acc

80% acc · 20%

Body

67% acc · 100%

Leg

0% acc

By position

0% acc

Distance

0% acc

71% acc · 25%

Clinch

60% acc · 100%

79% acc · 75%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jon Jones rounds

even

Chael Sonnen rounds

Round 1Jon Jones edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns3

Control4:05

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 27

Sig Strikes

6 / 15

74%

Sig Str %

40%

35 / 43

Total Strikes

38 / 51

3 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:05

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Chael Sonnen	6 / 15	38 / 51	0 / 0	0
1	Jon Jones	20 / 27	35 / 43	3 / 6	0

Jon Jones

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach84.0"

Fights19

Chael Sonnen

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7