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Light Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Jon Jones won · U-DEC R5
Elo1511
Jon Jones
Elo1485
Anthony Smith

Jon JonesvsAnthony SmithUFC Prediction Result

UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith · Saturday, March 2, 2019Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jon Jones won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Jon Jones wins(80.9%)

Actual result: Jon Jones wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jon Jones at -800 American odds

+$13 profit

$113 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jon Jones enters on a 5-fight win streak.
  • Anthony Smith enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Jon Jones has 20pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Jon Jones has 45pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Jon Jones has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jon Jones
Red Corner
VS
Anthony Smith
Blue Corner
-800
(89%)
Vegas Odds
+550
(15%)
1511
Elo
1485
39
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'4"
213.36 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jon JonesW5 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Alexander Gustafsson · Dec 18
W
vs Thiago Santos · Jul 19
W
vs Dominick Reyes · Feb 20
W
SUBvs Ciryl Gane · Mar 23
W
KOvs Stipe Miocic · Nov 24
latest
Anthony SmithL3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Dec 23
W
SUBvs Vitor Petrino · May 24
L
vs Roman Dolidze · Jun 24
L
KOvs Dominick Reyes · Dec 24
L
KOvs Zhang Mingyang · Apr 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jon JonesMetricAnthony Smith
4.38
Strikes / min
3.19
2.24
Strikes absorbed / min
5.04
64%
Strike defense
44%
1.89
TDs / 15 min
0.44
95%
Takedown defense
50%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.14Δ 3.99 — meaningful gap-1.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1687 vs 1567Strikes61.8 vs 32.9Takedowns1.9 vs 0.4Sub Atts0.53 vs 0.40Form1.1 vs 0.7
Jon JonesAnthony Smith

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701485150015151530← oldermost recent →
Jon Jones(10 fights)Anthony Smith(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +26.4|Blue -26.4
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Grappler Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff
Red -63.0|Blue +63.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jon JonesTargetAnthony Smith

By target zone

45
56% acc · 36%
Head
15
38% acc · 42%
35
88% acc · 28%
Body
9
64% acc · 25%
45
96% acc · 36%
Leg
12
100% acc · 33%

By position

64
63% acc · 51%
Distance
31
53% acc · 86%
31
91% acc · 25%
Clinch
5
71% acc · 14%
30
97% acc · 24%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

5
Jon Jones rounds
0
even
0
Anthony Smith rounds
Round 1Jon Jones edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:40
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Jon Jones edged it
Sig. strikes30
Takedowns0
Control0:45
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Jon Jones edged it
Sig. strikes27
Takedowns1
Control4:21
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Jon Jones edged it
Sig. strikes35
Takedowns2
Control3:38
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Jon Jones edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control3:34
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
125 / 167
Sig Strikes
36 / 66
73.4%
Sig Str %
64.4%
238 / 287
Total Strikes
45 / 75
3 / 8
TDs
0 / 0
30%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
12:58
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Anthony Smith12 / 2113 / 220 / 00
1Jon Jones13 / 2517 / 290 / 10
2Anthony Smith14 / 2414 / 240 / 00
2Jon Jones30 / 4435 / 490 / 10
3Anthony Smith2 / 35 / 60 / 00
3Jon Jones27 / 3057 / 601 / 20
4Jon Jones35 / 3951 / 582 / 20
4Anthony Smith1 / 12 / 20 / 00
5Anthony Smith7 / 1711 / 210 / 00
5Jon Jones20 / 2978 / 910 / 20

Jon Jones

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach84.0"
Fights19

Anthony Smith

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights25