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Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Jon Jones won · U-DEC R5

Elo1511

Elo1430

Jon JonesvsAlexander GustafssonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson · Saturday, September 21, 2013Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Jon Jones won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupJon Jones: Elusive strikervsAlexander Gustafsson: Pressure fighter

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Jon Jones wins(72.2%)

Actual result: Jon Jones wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jon Jones at -840 American odds

+$12 profit

$112 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jon Jones enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Alexander Gustafsson enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Jon Jones has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jon Jones has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jon Jones

Red Corner

Alexander Gustafsson

Blue Corner

-840

(89%)

Vegas Odds

+660

(13%)

1511

Elo

1430

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'5"

213.36 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jon JonesW5 streak

oldest →

vs Anthony Smith · Mar 19

vs Thiago Santos · Jul 19

vs Dominick Reyes · Feb 20

SUBvs Ciryl Gane · Mar 23

KOvs Stipe Miocic · Nov 24

latest

Alexander GustafssonL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Glover Teixeira · May 17

KOvs Jon Jones · Dec 18

SUBvs Anthony Smith · Jun 19

SUBvs Fabricio Werdum · Jul 20

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jon JonesMetricAlexander Gustafsson

4.38

Strikes / min

4.03

2.24

Strikes absorbed / min

3.53

64%

Strike defense

51%

1.89

TDs / 15 min

1.53

95%

Takedown defense

83%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.14Δ 1.64 — meaningful gap+0.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jon JonesAlexander Gustafsson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jon Jones(10 fights)Alexander Gustafsson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +81.0|Blue -81.0

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -140.0|Blue +140.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jon JonesTargetAlexander Gustafsson

By target zone

46% acc · 40%

Head

31% acc · 57%

76% acc · 21%

Body

51% acc · 30%

82% acc · 40%

Leg

74% acc · 13%

By position

127

61% acc · 95%

Distance

108

38% acc · 98%

78% acc · 5%

Clinch

40% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jon Jones rounds

even

Alexander Gustafsson rounds

Round 1Jon Jones edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:05

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:13Control

Round 2Jon Jones edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:05

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 3Jon Jones edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 4Even round

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:22

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Jon Jones edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns1

Control0:25

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

134 / 217

Sig Strikes

110 / 288

61.8%

Sig Str %

37.4%

137 / 220

Total Strikes

114 / 294

1 / 11

TDs

1 / 8

12.5%

TD %

20%

Sub Att

Rev

0:57

Ctrl Time

0:20

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alexander Gustafsson	19 / 48	19 / 48	1 / 1
1	Jon Jones	28 / 39	28 / 39	0 / 3
2	Alexander Gustafsson	15 / 51	15 / 51	0 / 1
2	Jon Jones	26 / 42	26 / 42	0 / 3
3	Alexander Gustafsson	26 / 64	26 / 64	0 / 1
3	Jon Jones	29 / 42	30 / 43	0 / 0
4	Jon Jones	27 / 49	28 / 50	0 / 3
4	Alexander Gustafsson	26 / 60	26 / 60	0 / 1
5	Alexander Gustafsson	24 / 65	28 / 71	0 / 4
5	Jon Jones	24 / 45	25 / 46	1 / 2

Jon Jones

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach84.0"

Fights19

Alexander Gustafsson

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights17