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Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Jon Jones won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1511

Elo1430

Jon JonesvsAlexander GustafssonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · Saturday, December 29, 2018Los Angeles, California, USA

Official fight result

Jon Jones won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:02

Style matchupJon Jones: Elusive strikervsAlexander Gustafsson: Pressure fighter

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Jon Jones wins(68.5%)

Actual result: Jon Jones wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jon Jones at -290 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jon Jones enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Alexander Gustafsson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jon Jones has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jon Jones has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jon Jones

Red Corner

Alexander Gustafsson

Blue Corner

-290

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+245

(29%)

1511

Elo

1430

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'5"

213.36 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jon JonesW5 streak

oldest →

vs Anthony Smith · Mar 19

vs Thiago Santos · Jul 19

vs Dominick Reyes · Feb 20

SUBvs Ciryl Gane · Mar 23

KOvs Stipe Miocic · Nov 24

latest

Alexander GustafssonL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jan Blachowicz · Sep 16

KOvs Glover Teixeira · May 17

SUBvs Anthony Smith · Jun 19

SUBvs Fabricio Werdum · Jul 20

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jon JonesMetricAlexander Gustafsson

4.38

Strikes / min

4.03

2.24

Strikes absorbed / min

3.53

64%

Strike defense

51%

1.89

TDs / 15 min

1.53

95%

Takedown defense

83%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.14Δ 1.64 — meaningful gap+0.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jon JonesAlexander Gustafsson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jon Jones(10 fights)Alexander Gustafsson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +81.0|Blue -81.0

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +400.0|Blue -400.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jon JonesTargetAlexander Gustafsson

By target zone

50% acc · 44%

Head

19% acc · 55%

68% acc · 25%

Body

36% acc · 18%

64% acc · 31%

Leg

60% acc · 27%

By position

49% acc · 68%

Distance

24% acc · 86%

88% acc · 12%

Clinch

100% acc · 14%

92% acc · 20%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jon Jones rounds

even

Alexander Gustafsson rounds

Round 1Jon Jones edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jon Jones edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Jon Jones edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control1:28

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

59 / 102

Sig Strikes

22 / 83

63.3%

Sig Str %

29.7%

63 / 106

Total Strikes

24 / 85

1 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

33.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:28

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alexander Gustafsson	13 / 32	14 / 33	0 / 0
1	Jon Jones	19 / 36	20 / 37	0 / 3
2	Alexander Gustafsson	8 / 48	8 / 48	0 / 0
2	Jon Jones	27 / 51	27 / 51	0 / 1
3	Alexander Gustafsson	1 / 3	2 / 4	0 / 0
3	Jon Jones	13 / 15	16 / 18	1 / 1

Jon Jones

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach84.0"

Fights19

Alexander Gustafsson

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights17