Welterweight

3 Rounds

Jon Fitch won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1379

Jon FitchvsThiago AlvesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen · Saturday, August 7, 2010Oakland, California, USA

Official fight result

Jon Fitch won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJon Fitch: WrestlervsThiago Alves: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Jon Fitch wins(80.9%)

Actual result: Jon Fitch wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jon Fitch at +116 American odds

+$116 profit

$216 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jon Fitch has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jon Fitch

Red Corner

Thiago Alves

Blue Corner

+116

(46%)

Vegas Odds

-126

(56%)

1490

Elo

1379

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'9"

187.96 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jon Fitch

oldest →

vs Ben Saunders · Mar 10

KOvs Johny Hendricks · Dec 11

vs Erick Silva · Oct 12

vs Demian Maia · Feb 13

latest

Thiago AlvesL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Curtis Millender · Feb 18

vs Aleksei Kunchenko · Sep 18

vs Max Griffin · Feb 19

vs Laureano Staropoli · May 19

SUBvs Tim Means · Dec 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jon FitchMetricThiago Alves

2.61

Strikes / min

3.73

1.65

Strikes absorbed / min

3.42

54%

Strike defense

62%

3.60

TDs / 15 min

0.71

56%

Takedown defense

63%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.96evenly matched on net striking+0.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jon FitchThiago Alves

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jon Fitch(5 fights)Thiago Alves(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +111.6|Blue -111.6

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -47.8|Blue +47.8

Grappler Score

Red -49.3|Blue +49.3

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jon FitchTargetThiago Alves

By target zone

31% acc · 52%

Head

19% acc · 59%

67% acc · 28%

Body

50% acc · 9%

100% acc · 21%

Leg

78% acc · 32%

By position

32% acc · 45%

Distance

27% acc · 82%

56% acc · 17%

Clinch

29% acc · 9%

69% acc · 38%

Ground

25% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jon Fitch rounds

even

Thiago Alves rounds

Round 1Jon Fitch edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns4

Control1:58

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:58Control

Round 2Jon Fitch edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns4

Control3:41

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control2:27

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:45Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 66

Sig Strikes

22 / 81

45%

Sig Str %

24%

70 / 114

Total Strikes

39 / 103

9 / 11

TDs

0 / 0

76.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

8:06

Ctrl Time

2:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Thiago Alves	7 / 30	15 / 41	0 / 0
1	Jon Fitch	11 / 29	19 / 40	4 / 5
2	Thiago Alves	2 / 12	6 / 17	0 / 0
2	Jon Fitch	10 / 17	32 / 40	4 / 4
3	Thiago Alves	13 / 39	18 / 45	0 / 0
3	Jon Fitch	8 / 20	19 / 34	1 / 2

Jon Fitch

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights5

Thiago Alves

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15