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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Johny Hendricks won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1490
Elo1362
Johny Hendricks

Jon FitchvsJohny HendricksUFC Prediction Result

UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem · Friday, December 30, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Johny Hendricks won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:12

Style matchupJon Fitch: WrestlervsJohny Hendricks: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Jon Fitch wins(72.4%)

Actual result: Johny Hendricks wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jon Fitch at -225 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Johny Hendricks (53.5%).
  • Jon Fitch has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jon Fitch
Red Corner
VS
Johny Hendricks
Blue Corner
-225
(69%)
Vegas Odds
+205
(33%)
1490
Elo
1362
48
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'0"
Height
5'9"
187.96 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jon Fitch
oldest →
W
vs Ben Saunders · Mar 10
W
vs Thiago Alves · Aug 10
W
vs Erick Silva · Oct 12
L
vs Demian Maia · Feb 13
latest
Johny HendricksL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Kelvin Gastelum · Jul 16
L
vs Neil Magny · Dec 16
W
vs Hector Lombard · Feb 17
L
KOvs Tim Boetsch · Jun 17
L
KOvs Paulo Costa · Nov 17
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jon FitchMetricJohny Hendricks
2.61
Strikes / min
3.49
1.65
Strikes absorbed / min
3.99
54%
Strike defense
53%
3.60
TDs / 15 min
3.83
56%
Takedown defense
63%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.96Δ 1.46 — meaningful gap-0.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1536 vs 1556Strikes36.1 vs 31.7Takedowns3.5 vs 3.1Sub Atts0.73 vs 0.71Form1.0 vs 0.7
Jon FitchJohny Hendricks

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801488149515031510← oldermost recent →
Jon Fitch(5 fights)Johny Hendricks(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +127.7|Blue -127.7
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red +364.0|Blue -364.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jon FitchTargetJohny Hendricks

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
2
100% acc · 100%
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
1
100% acc · 50%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
1
100% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Jon Fitch rounds
0
even
1
Johny Hendricks rounds
Round 1Johny Hendricks edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
0 / 1
Sig Strikes
2 / 2
0%
Sig Str %
100%
0 / 1
Total Strikes
2 / 2
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:02

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Johny Hendricks2 / 22 / 20 / 00
1Jon Fitch0 / 10 / 10 / 00

Jon Fitch

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights5

Johny Hendricks

StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights19