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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Jon Fitch won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1363

Jon FitchvsErick SilvaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar · Saturday, October 13, 2012Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Jon Fitch won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJon Fitch: WrestlervsErick Silva: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Jon Fitch wins(68.3%)

Actual result: Jon Fitch wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jon Fitch at +177 American odds

+$177 profit

$277 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Jon Fitch

Red Corner

Erick Silva

Blue Corner

+177

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-192

(66%)

1490

Elo

1363

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jon FitchL2 streak

oldest →

vs Ben Saunders · Mar 10

vs Thiago Alves · Aug 10

KOvs Johny Hendricks · Dec 11

vs Demian Maia · Feb 13

latest

Erick SilvaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Neil Magny · Aug 15

KOvs Nordine Taleb · Mar 16

SUBvs Luan Chagas · Sep 16

KOvs Yancy Medeiros · Jun 17

vs Jordan Mein · Dec 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jon FitchMetricErick Silva

2.61

Strikes / min

2.50

1.65

Strikes absorbed / min

4.18

54%

Strike defense

49%

3.60

TDs / 15 min

0.85

56%

Takedown defense

56%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.96Δ 2.64 — meaningful gap-1.68

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jon FitchErick Silva

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jon Fitch(5 fights)Erick Silva(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +127.1|Blue -127.1

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +1.9|Blue -1.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Layoff

Red +161.0|Blue -161.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jon FitchTargetErick Silva

By target zone

62% acc · 84%

Head

52% acc · 63%

71% acc · 12%

Body

57% acc · 21%

60% acc · 4%

Leg

100% acc · 16%

By position

42% acc · 6%

Distance

40% acc · 21%

57% acc · 20%

Clinch

50% acc · 37%

67% acc · 74%

Ground

89% acc · 42%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jon Fitch rounds

even

Erick Silva rounds

Round 1Jon Fitch edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns4

Control2:46

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:27Control

Round 2Erick Silva edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control1:27

11Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:24Control

Round 3Jon Fitch edged it

Sig. strikes58

Takedowns2

Control4:37

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

82 / 131

Sig Strikes

19 / 33

57.3%

Sig Str %

57%

176 / 234

Total Strikes

24 / 38

6 / 9

TDs

2 / 3

55.3%

TD %

66%

Sub Att

Rev

8:50

Ctrl Time

2:58

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Erick Silva	8 / 15	9 / 16	0 / 0	0
1	Jon Fitch	13 / 22	34 / 46	4 / 6	1
2	Erick Silva	11 / 18	13 / 20	2 / 3	1
2	Jon Fitch	11 / 24	30 / 43	0 / 1	1
3	Erick Silva	0 / 0	2 / 2	0 / 0	1
3	Jon Fitch	58 / 85	112 / 145	2 / 2	0

Jon Fitch

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights5

Erick Silva

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights15