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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Demian Maia won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1402

Jon FitchvsDemian MaiaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar · Saturday, February 2, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Demian Maia won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJon Fitch: WrestlervsDemian Maia: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Jon Fitch wins(60.6%)

Actual result: Demian Maia wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jon Fitch at -171 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Demian Maia (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jon Fitch

Red Corner

Demian Maia

Blue Corner

-171

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+161

(38%)

1490

Elo

1402

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'1"

187.96 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jon Fitch

oldest →

vs Ben Saunders · Mar 10

vs Thiago Alves · Aug 10

KOvs Johny Hendricks · Dec 11

vs Erick Silva · Oct 12

latest

Demian MaiaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Lyman Good · Feb 19

DECvs Rocco Martin · Jun 19

SUBvs Ben Askren · Oct 19

KOvs Gilbert Burns · Mar 20

vs Belal Muhammad · Jun 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jon FitchMetricDemian Maia

2.61

Strikes / min

1.80

1.65

Strikes absorbed / min

2.07

54%

Strike defense

63%

3.60

TDs / 15 min

2.49

56%

Takedown defense

61%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.96Δ 1.23 — meaningful gap-0.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jon FitchDemian Maia

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jon Fitch(5 fights)Demian Maia(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +87.8|Blue -87.8

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jon FitchTargetDemian Maia

By target zone

25% acc · 50%

Head

64% acc · 58%

50% acc · 17%

Body

50% acc · 8%

100% acc · 33%

Leg

100% acc · 33%

By position

36% acc · 83%

Distance

20% acc · 8%

0% acc

Clinch

75% acc · 25%

100% acc · 17%

Ground

100% acc · 67%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jon Fitch rounds

even

Demian Maia rounds

Round 1Demian Maia edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

4:56Control

Round 2Demian Maia edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

3Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:11Control

Round 3Demian Maia edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:34

0Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:47Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 16

Sig Strikes

12 / 17

38%

Sig Str %

46.7%

36 / 55

Total Strikes

63 / 74

0 / 0

TDs

7 / 17

—

TD %

57.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:34

Ctrl Time

12:54

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Demian Maia	9 / 10	34 / 38	3 / 6	1
1	Jon Fitch	0 / 0	6 / 6	0 / 0	0
2	Demian Maia	3 / 6	21 / 26	2 / 2	2
2	Jon Fitch	4 / 11	15 / 24	0 / 0	0
3	Demian Maia	0 / 1	8 / 10	2 / 9	0
3	Jon Fitch	2 / 5	15 / 25	0 / 0	1

Jon Fitch

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights5

Demian Maia

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights26