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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Stephen Thompson won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1362

Elo1482

Johny HendricksvsStephen ThompsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson · Saturday, February 6, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Stephen Thompson won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:31

Style matchupJohny Hendricks: WrestlervsStephen Thompson: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Johny Hendricks wins(58.0%)

Actual result: Stephen Thompson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Johny Hendricks at -290 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stephen Thompson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Stance matchup historically favors Johny Hendricks (53.5%).
Stephen Thompson has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Johny Hendricks

Red Corner

Stephen Thompson

Blue Corner

-290

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+245

(29%)

1362

Elo

1482

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

6'0"

175.26 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Johny HendricksL2 streak

oldest →

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Jul 16

vs Neil Magny · Dec 16

vs Hector Lombard · Feb 17

KOvs Tim Boetsch · Jun 17

KOvs Paulo Costa · Nov 17

latest

Stephen ThompsonL3 streak

oldest →

vs Belal Muhammad · Dec 21

KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 22

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 23

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Oct 24

vs Gabriel Bonfim · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Johny HendricksMetricStephen Thompson

3.49

Strikes / min

4.05

3.99

Strikes absorbed / min

3.00

53%

Strike defense

54%

3.83

TDs / 15 min

0.23

63%

Takedown defense

63%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.50Δ 1.55 — meaningful gap+1.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Johny HendricksStephen Thompson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Johny Hendricks(10 fights)Stephen Thompson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -120.0|Blue +120.0

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +120.0|Blue -120.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Johny HendricksTargetStephen Thompson

By target zone

27% acc · 43%

Head

45% acc · 71%

0% acc

Body

86% acc · 25%

100% acc · 57%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

31% acc · 57%

Distance

48% acc · 79%

100% acc · 43%

Clinch

75% acc · 13%

Ground

100% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Johny Hendricks rounds

even

Stephen Thompson rounds

Round 1Stephen Thompson edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:29

Knockdowns0

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 16

Sig Strikes

24 / 46

43%

Sig Str %

52%

11 / 22

Total Strikes

25 / 47

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:29

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Stephen Thompson	24 / 46	25 / 47	0 / 0	0
1	Johny Hendricks	7 / 16	11 / 22	0 / 2	0

Johny Hendricks

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights19

Stephen Thompson

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights21