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Welterweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Johny Hendricks won · U-DEC R5
Elo1362
Johny Hendricks
Elo1499
Robbie Lawler

Johny HendricksvsRobbie LawlerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler · Saturday, March 15, 2014Dallas, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Johny Hendricks won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupJohny Hendricks: WrestlervsRobbie Lawler: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Johny Hendricks wins(65.9%)

Actual result: Johny Hendricks wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Johny Hendricks at -365 American odds

+$27 profit

$127 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Robbie Lawler has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Johny Hendricks
Red Corner
VS
Robbie Lawler
Blue Corner
-365
(78%)
Vegas Odds
+328
(23%)
1362
Elo
1499
42
Age
44
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
5'11"
175.26 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Johny HendricksL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Kelvin Gastelum · Jul 16
L
vs Neil Magny · Dec 16
W
vs Hector Lombard · Feb 17
L
KOvs Tim Boetsch · Jun 17
L
KOvs Paulo Costa · Nov 17
latest
Robbie Lawler
oldest →
L
vs Colby Covington · Aug 19
L
SUBvs Neil Magny · Aug 20
W
KOvs Nick Diaz · Sep 21
L
KOvs Bryan Barberena · Jul 22
W
KOvs Niko Price · Jul 23
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Johny HendricksMetricRobbie Lawler
3.49
Strikes / min
3.85
3.99
Strikes absorbed / min
4.67
53%
Strike defense
59%
3.83
TDs / 15 min
0.65
63%
Takedown defense
65%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.50evenly matched on net striking-0.82

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1602 vs 1557Strikes33.1 vs 24.2Takedowns3.2 vs 1.4Sub Atts0.42 vs 0.00Form0.2 vs 1.0
Johny HendricksRobbie Lawler

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Johny Hendricks(10 fights)Robbie Lawler(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -136.6|Blue +136.6
Recent Form
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Johny HendricksTargetRobbie Lawler

By target zone

111
32% acc · 70%
Head
141
44% acc · 94%
6
67% acc · 4%
Body
5
83% acc · 3%
41
91% acc · 26%
Leg
4
80% acc · 3%

By position

138
37% acc · 87%
Distance
146
45% acc · 97%
18
69% acc · 11%
Clinch
4
40% acc · 3%
2
100% acc · 1%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Johny Hendricks rounds
0
even
2
Robbie Lawler rounds
Round 1Johny Hendricks edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control1:42
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Johny Hendricks edged it
Sig. strikes42
Takedowns0
Control0:00
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Robbie Lawler edged it
Sig. strikes33
Takedowns0
Control0:06
43Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Robbie Lawler edged it
Sig. strikes34
Takedowns1
Control0:14
56Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Johny Hendricks edged it
Sig. strikes34
Takedowns1
Control2:07
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
158 / 397
Sig Strikes
150 / 331
39.6%
Sig Str %
42.2%
186 / 426
Total Strikes
162 / 343
2 / 10
TDs
0 / 0
15%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
4:09
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Robbie Lawler13 / 3314 / 340 / 00
1Johny Hendricks15 / 4225 / 530 / 20
2Robbie Lawler21 / 5922 / 600 / 00
2Johny Hendricks42 / 10942 / 1090 / 10
3Robbie Lawler43 / 8944 / 900 / 00
3Johny Hendricks33 / 9033 / 900 / 10
4Johny Hendricks34 / 9339 / 981 / 20
4Robbie Lawler56 / 10456 / 1040 / 00
5Robbie Lawler17 / 4626 / 550 / 00
5Johny Hendricks34 / 6347 / 761 / 40

Johny Hendricks

StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights19

Robbie Lawler

StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights18