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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Robbie Lawler won · S-DEC R5

Elo1362

Elo1499

Johny HendricksvsRobbie LawlerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II · Saturday, December 6, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Robbie Lawler won

S-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupJohny Hendricks: WrestlervsRobbie Lawler: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Johny Hendricks wins(60.8%)

Actual result: Robbie Lawler wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Johny Hendricks at -220 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Robbie Lawler has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Johny Hendricks

Red Corner

Robbie Lawler

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+200

(33%)

1362

Elo

1499

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'11"

175.26 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Johny HendricksL2 streak

oldest →

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Jul 16

vs Neil Magny · Dec 16

vs Hector Lombard · Feb 17

KOvs Tim Boetsch · Jun 17

KOvs Paulo Costa · Nov 17

latest

Robbie Lawler

oldest →

vs Colby Covington · Aug 19

SUBvs Neil Magny · Aug 20

KOvs Nick Diaz · Sep 21

KOvs Bryan Barberena · Jul 22

KOvs Niko Price · Jul 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Johny HendricksMetricRobbie Lawler

3.49

Strikes / min

3.85

3.99

Strikes absorbed / min

4.67

53%

Strike defense

59%

3.83

TDs / 15 min

0.65

63%

Takedown defense

65%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.50evenly matched on net striking-0.82

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Johny HendricksRobbie Lawler

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Johny Hendricks(10 fights)Robbie Lawler(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -136.6|Blue +136.6

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +133.0|Blue -133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Johny HendricksTargetRobbie Lawler

By target zone

38% acc · 59%

Head

48% acc · 61%

60% acc · 5%

Body

87% acc · 39%

93% acc · 35%

Leg

0% acc

By position

47% acc · 87%

Distance

42% acc · 47%

65% acc · 12%

Clinch

80% acc · 31%

50% acc · 1%

Ground

93% acc · 22%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Johny Hendricks rounds

even

Robbie Lawler rounds

Round 1Robbie Lawler edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control3:16

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Johny Hendricks edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns1

Control1:57

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Johny Hendricks edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns2

Control1:30

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Johny Hendricks edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns1

Control1:43

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

Round 5Robbie Lawler edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control1:55

42Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:45Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

111 / 228

Sig Strikes

116 / 201

47.4%

Sig Str %

53.8%

145 / 264

Total Strikes

167 / 253

5 / 17

TDs

0 / 0

37.2%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

10:21

Ctrl Time

1:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Robbie Lawler	34 / 52	43 / 61	0 / 0	0
1	Johny Hendricks	14 / 29	33 / 50	1 / 5	0
2	Robbie Lawler	13 / 29	18 / 34	0 / 0	0
2	Johny Hendricks	35 / 63	39 / 67	1 / 3	1
3	Robbie Lawler	8 / 17	13 / 22	0 / 0	0
3	Johny Hendricks	26 / 57	28 / 59	2 / 2	0
4	Johny Hendricks	23 / 49	23 / 49	1 / 3	0
4	Robbie Lawler	19 / 40	30 / 51	0 / 0	0
5	Robbie Lawler	42 / 63	63 / 85	0 / 0	0
5	Johny Hendricks	13 / 30	22 / 39	0 / 4	0

Johny Hendricks

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights19

Robbie Lawler

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights18