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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Rick Story won · U-DEC R3

Elo1362

Elo1491

Johny HendricksvsRick StoryUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP vs Team Koscheck Finale · Saturday, December 4, 2010Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Rick Story won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJohny Hendricks: WrestlervsRick Story: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Rick Story wins(61.7%)

Actual result: Rick Story wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rick Story at +167 American odds

+$167 profit

$267 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Johny Hendricks

Red Corner

Rick Story

Blue Corner

-178

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+167

(37%)

1362

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'9"

175.26 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Johny HendricksL2 streak

oldest →

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Jul 16

vs Neil Magny · Dec 16

vs Hector Lombard · Feb 17

KOvs Tim Boetsch · Jun 17

KOvs Paulo Costa · Nov 17

latest

Rick Story

oldest →

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Mar 14

SUBvs Leonardo Mafra · Jul 14

vs Gunnar Nelson · Oct 14

vs Tarec Saffiedine · May 16

KOvs Donald Cerrone · Aug 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Johny HendricksMetricRick Story

3.49

Strikes / min

3.80

3.99

Strikes absorbed / min

2.17

53%

Strike defense

62%

3.83

TDs / 15 min

2.53

63%

Takedown defense

63%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.50Δ 2.13 — meaningful gap+1.63

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Johny HendricksRick Story

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Johny Hendricks(10 fights)Rick Story(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -128.1|Blue +128.1

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Johny HendricksTargetRick Story

By target zone

35% acc · 75%

Head

25% acc · 36%

50% acc · 4%

Body

71% acc · 44%

100% acc · 21%

Leg

92% acc · 20%

By position

39% acc · 79%

Distance

35% acc · 60%

56% acc · 21%

Clinch

68% acc · 38%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Johny Hendricks rounds

even

Rick Story rounds

Round 1Rick Story edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control0:33

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:29Control

Round 2Rick Story edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control1:27

21Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:52Control

Round 3Johny Hendricks edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns5

Control4:17

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:30Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 58

Sig Strikes

55 / 125

48%

Sig Str %

51%

45 / 79

Total Strikes

98 / 170

6 / 13

TDs

2 / 5

50%

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

6:17

Ctrl Time

2:51

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Rick Story	32 / 76	40 / 86	0 / 2	0
1	Johny Hendricks	14 / 33	19 / 38	1 / 1	0
2	Rick Story	21 / 46	36 / 61	2 / 3	0
2	Johny Hendricks	8 / 22	14 / 28	0 / 2	1
3	Rick Story	2 / 3	22 / 23	0 / 0	1
3	Johny Hendricks	2 / 3	12 / 13	5 / 10	0

Johny Hendricks

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights19

Rick Story

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights16