Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Middleweight
3 Rounds
Paulo Costa won · KO/TKO R2
Elo1362
Johny Hendricks
Elo1522
Paulo Costa

Johny HendricksvsPaulo CostaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre · Saturday, November 4, 2017New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Paulo Costa won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:23

Style matchupJohny Hendricks: WrestlervsPaulo Costa: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Johny Hendricks wins(60.9%)

Actual result: Paulo Costa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Johny Hendricks at +305 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Johny Hendricks (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Johny Hendricks
Red Corner
VS
Paulo Costa
Blue Corner
+305
(25%)
Vegas Odds
-365
(78%)
1362
Elo
1522
42
Age
35
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
6'1"
175.26 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Johny Hendricks
oldest →
L
KOvs Stephen Thompson · Feb 16
L
vs Kelvin Gastelum · Jul 16
L
vs Neil Magny · Dec 16
W
vs Hector Lombard · Feb 17
L
KOvs Tim Boetsch · Jun 17
latest
Paulo CostaW2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Luke Rockhold · Aug 22
L
vs Robert Whittaker · Feb 24
L
vs Sean Strickland · Jun 24
W
vs Roman Kopylov · Jul 25
W
KOvs Azamat Murzakanov · Apr 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Johny HendricksMetricPaulo Costa
3.49
Strikes / min
6.15
3.99
Strikes absorbed / min
5.96
53%
Strike defense
49%
3.83
TDs / 15 min
0.30
63%
Takedown defense
77%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.50evenly matched on net striking+0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1551 vs 1533Strikes42.9 vs 32.5Takedowns3.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.30 vs 0.00Form-0.5 vs 1.0
Johny HendricksPaulo Costa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801495151015251540← oldermost recent →
Johny Hendricks(10 fights)Paulo Costa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -159.4|Blue +159.4
Recent Form
Red -1.4|Blue +1.4
Striker Score
Red +1.5|Blue -1.5
Grappler Score
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Layoff
Red -22.0|Blue +22.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Johny HendricksTargetPaulo Costa

By target zone

10
31% acc · 37%
Head
25
40% acc · 51%
2
100% acc · 7%
Body
23
88% acc · 47%
15
75% acc · 56%
Leg
1
50% acc · 2%

By position

27
52% acc · 100%
Distance
45
54% acc · 92%
0
0% acc
Clinch
3
75% acc · 6%
0
Ground
1
50% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Johny Hendricks rounds
0
even
2
Paulo Costa rounds
Round 1Paulo Costa edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns0
Control0:00
29Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Paulo Costa edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
27 / 54
Sig Strikes
49 / 90
46.5%
Sig Str %
57%
27 / 54
Total Strikes
49 / 90
0 / 4
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:01

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Paulo Costa29 / 6029 / 600 / 00
1Johny Hendricks22 / 4222 / 420 / 20
2Paulo Costa20 / 3020 / 300 / 00
2Johny Hendricks5 / 125 / 120 / 20

Johny Hendricks

StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights19

Paulo Costa

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights11