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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Neil Magny won · U-DEC R3

Elo1362

Elo1505

Johny HendricksvsNeil MagnyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey · Friday, December 30, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Neil Magny won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJohny Hendricks: WrestlervsNeil Magny: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Neil Magny wins(59.8%)

Actual result: Neil Magny wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Neil Magny at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Johny Hendricks (53.5%).
Neil Magny has a 28cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Johny Hendricks

Red Corner

Neil Magny

Blue Corner

+170

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-200

(67%)

1362

Elo

1505

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

6'3"

175.26 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Johny HendricksL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Stephen Thompson · Feb 16

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Jul 16

vs Hector Lombard · Feb 17

KOvs Tim Boetsch · Jun 17

KOvs Paulo Costa · Nov 17

latest

Neil Magny

oldest →

KOvs Michael Morales · Aug 24

KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 24

KOvs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Aug 25

SUBvs Jake Matthews · Sep 25

SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Johny HendricksMetricNeil Magny

3.49

Strikes / min

3.40

3.99

Strikes absorbed / min

2.44

53%

Strike defense

51%

3.83

TDs / 15 min

2.17

63%

Takedown defense

55%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.50Δ 1.46 — meaningful gap+0.96

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Johny HendricksNeil Magny

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Johny Hendricks(10 fights)Neil Magny(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -142.9|Blue +142.9

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Johny HendricksTargetNeil Magny

By target zone

36% acc · 56%

Head

46% acc · 54%

100% acc · 6%

Body

70% acc · 32%

100% acc · 39%

Leg

78% acc · 14%

By position

45% acc · 50%

Distance

46% acc · 62%

20% acc · 6%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

73% acc · 44%

Ground

82% acc · 36%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Johny Hendricks rounds

even

Neil Magny rounds

Round 1Neil Magny edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control2:52

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Johny Hendricks edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns3

Control4:24

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 3Neil Magny edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns2

Control2:42

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

18 / 36

Sig Strikes

50 / 91

56.7%

Sig Str %

46.7%

52 / 76

Total Strikes

96 / 139

6 / 7

TDs

1 / 1

88.7%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

9:58

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Neil Magny	18 / 33	38 / 54	1 / 1	1
1	Johny Hendricks	7 / 14	15 / 24	1 / 1	0
2	Neil Magny	2 / 7	10 / 15	0 / 0	0
2	Johny Hendricks	5 / 6	26 / 30	3 / 3	0
3	Neil Magny	30 / 51	48 / 70	0 / 0	1
3	Johny Hendricks	6 / 16	11 / 22	2 / 3	0

Johny Hendricks

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights19

Neil Magny

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights37