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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Johny Hendricks won · S-DEC R3

Elo1362

Elo1356

Johny HendricksvsMike PierceUFC Prediction Result

UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2 · Saturday, August 6, 2011Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA

Official fight result

Johny Hendricks won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJohny Hendricks: WrestlervsMike Pierce: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Mike Pierce wins(66.9%)

Actual result: Johny Hendricks wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Pierce at +132 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Johny Hendricks (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Johny Hendricks

Red Corner

Mike Pierce

Blue Corner

-142

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+132

(43%)

1362

Elo

1356

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'8"

175.26 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Johny HendricksL2 streak

oldest →

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Jul 16

vs Neil Magny · Dec 16

vs Hector Lombard · Feb 17

KOvs Tim Boetsch · Jun 17

KOvs Paulo Costa · Nov 17

latest

Mike PierceL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Aaron Simpson · Oct 12

vs Seth Baczynski · Dec 12

KOvs David Mitchell · Jul 13

SUBvs Rousimar Palhares · Oct 13

vs Ryan LaFlare · Dec 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Johny HendricksMetricMike Pierce

3.49

Strikes / min

2.62

3.99

Strikes absorbed / min

2.36

53%

Strike defense

62%

3.83

TDs / 15 min

3.08

63%

Takedown defense

71%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.50evenly matched on net striking+0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Johny HendricksMike Pierce

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Johny Hendricks(10 fights)Mike Pierce(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +6.6|Blue -6.6

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Johny HendricksTargetMike Pierce

By target zone

34% acc · 57%

Head

31% acc · 68%

83% acc · 28%

Body

60% acc · 24%

73% acc · 15%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

30% acc · 44%

Distance

22% acc · 35%

73% acc · 56%

Clinch

58% acc · 57%

Ground

100% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Johny Hendricks rounds

even

Mike Pierce rounds

Round 1Johny Hendricks edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns1

Control1:03

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:34

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:08Control

Round 3Mike Pierce edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:15

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:02Control

Fight Stats

Totals

54 / 121

Sig Strikes

37 / 99

42.3%

Sig Str %

38%

90 / 159

Total Strikes

81 / 145

1 / 6

TDs

1 / 4

16.7%

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

1:52

Ctrl Time

3:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mike Pierce	10 / 31	16 / 37	0 / 0
1	Johny Hendricks	29 / 53	36 / 60	1 / 2
2	Mike Pierce	15 / 43	35 / 64	0 / 0
2	Johny Hendricks	16 / 44	26 / 55	0 / 2
3	Mike Pierce	12 / 25	30 / 44	1 / 4
3	Johny Hendricks	9 / 24	28 / 44	0 / 2

Johny Hendricks

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights19

Mike Pierce

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights12