← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Johny Hendricks won · U-DEC R3

Elo1362

Elo1499

Johny HendricksvsMatt BrownUFC Prediction Result

UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos · Saturday, March 14, 2015Dallas, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Johny Hendricks won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJohny Hendricks: WrestlervsMatt Brown: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Johny Hendricks wins(60.4%)

Actual result: Johny Hendricks wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Johny Hendricks at -380 American odds

+$26 profit

$126 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Johny Hendricks (53.5%).
Matt Brown has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Johny Hendricks

Red Corner

Matt Brown

Blue Corner

-380

(79%)

Vegas Odds

+340

(23%)

1362

Elo

1499

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

6'0"

175.26 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Johny HendricksL2 streak

oldest →

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Jul 16

vs Neil Magny · Dec 16

vs Hector Lombard · Feb 17

KOvs Tim Boetsch · Jun 17

KOvs Paulo Costa · Nov 17

latest

Matt Brown

oldest →

KOvs Miguel Baeza · May 20

vs Carlos Condit · Jan 21

KOvs Dhiego Lima · Jun 21

vs Bryan Barberena · Mar 22

KOvs Court McGee · May 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Johny HendricksMetricMatt Brown

3.49

Strikes / min

3.76

3.99

Strikes absorbed / min

2.92

53%

Strike defense

55%

3.83

TDs / 15 min

1.68

63%

Takedown defense

63%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.50Δ 1.34 — meaningful gap+0.84

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Johny HendricksMatt Brown

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Johny Hendricks(10 fights)Matt Brown(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -136.1|Blue +136.1

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -133.0|Blue +133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Johny HendricksTargetMatt Brown

By target zone

47% acc · 75%

Head

40% acc · 70%

100% acc · 14%

Body

78% acc · 30%

80% acc · 11%

Leg

By position

54% acc · 56%

Distance

32% acc · 52%

25% acc · 3%

Clinch

90% acc · 39%

58% acc · 42%

Ground

100% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Johny Hendricks rounds

even

Matt Brown rounds

Round 1Johny Hendricks edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns3

Control3:46

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Johny Hendricks edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns4

Control3:21

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Johny Hendricks edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns2

Control4:01

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:21Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 67

Sig Strikes

23 / 49

55.7%

Sig Str %

45.3%

85 / 124

Total Strikes

39 / 66

9 / 10

TDs

0 / 0

91.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

11:08

Ctrl Time

0:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Matt Brown	11 / 21	14 / 24	0 / 0
1	Johny Hendricks	10 / 16	28 / 36	3 / 4
2	Matt Brown	7 / 16	9 / 18	0 / 0
2	Johny Hendricks	21 / 42	42 / 67	4 / 4
3	Matt Brown	5 / 12	16 / 24	0 / 0
3	Johny Hendricks	5 / 9	15 / 21	2 / 2

Johny Hendricks

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights19

Matt Brown

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights25