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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Johny Hendricks won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1362

Elo1352

Johny HendricksvsMartin KampmannUFC Prediction Result

UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit · Saturday, November 17, 2012Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Johny Hendricks won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:46

Style matchupJohny Hendricks: WrestlervsMartin Kampmann: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Johny Hendricks wins(60.4%)

Actual result: Johny Hendricks wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Johny Hendricks at -167 American odds

+$60 profit

$160 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Martin Kampmann has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Johny Hendricks (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Johny Hendricks

Red Corner

Martin Kampmann

Blue Corner

-167

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+157

(39%)

1362

Elo

1352

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

6'0"

175.26 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Johny HendricksL2 streak

oldest →

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Jul 16

vs Neil Magny · Dec 16

vs Hector Lombard · Feb 17

KOvs Tim Boetsch · Jun 17

KOvs Paulo Costa · Nov 17

latest

Martin Kampmann

oldest →

vs Diego Sanchez · Mar 11

vs Rick Story · Nov 11

SUBvs Thiago Alves · Mar 12

KOvs Jake Ellenberger · Jun 12

KOvs Carlos Condit · Aug 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Johny HendricksMetricMartin Kampmann

3.49

Strikes / min

3.22

3.99

Strikes absorbed / min

3.28

53%

Strike defense

62%

3.83

TDs / 15 min

1.86

63%

Takedown defense

78%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

2.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.50evenly matched on net striking-0.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Johny HendricksMartin Kampmann

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Johny Hendricks(10 fights)Martin Kampmann(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +10.1|Blue -10.1

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +27.0|Blue -27.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Johny HendricksTargetMartin Kampmann

By target zone

43% acc · 100%

Head

0% acc

Body

0% acc

Leg

By position

33% acc · 67%

Distance

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 33%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Johny Hendricks rounds

even

Martin Kampmann rounds

Round 1Johny Hendricks edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

3 / 7

Sig Strikes

0 / 4

42%

Sig Str %

3 / 7

Total Strikes

0 / 4

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Martin Kampmann	0 / 4	0 / 4	0 / 0	0
1	Johny Hendricks	3 / 7	3 / 7	0 / 0	0

Johny Hendricks

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights19

Martin Kampmann

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8