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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Kelvin Gastelum won · U-DEC R3

Elo1362

Elo1492

Johny HendricksvsKelvin GastelumUFC Prediction Result

UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes · Saturday, July 9, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Kelvin Gastelum won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJohny Hendricks: WrestlervsKelvin Gastelum: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Johny Hendricks wins(81.7%)

Actual result: Kelvin Gastelum wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Johny Hendricks at -105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Johny Hendricks

Red Corner

Kelvin Gastelum

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-115

(53%)

1362

Elo

1492

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'9"

175.26 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Johny HendricksL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Stephen Thompson · Feb 16

vs Neil Magny · Dec 16

vs Hector Lombard · Feb 17

KOvs Tim Boetsch · Jun 17

KOvs Paulo Costa · Nov 17

latest

Kelvin Gastelum

oldest →

SUBvs Sean Brady · Dec 23

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jun 24

vs Joe Pyfer · Jun 25

vs Dustin Stoltzfus · Sep 25

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Johny HendricksMetricKelvin Gastelum

3.49

Strikes / min

3.65

3.99

Strikes absorbed / min

3.52

53%

Strike defense

57%

3.83

TDs / 15 min

1.04

63%

Takedown defense

60%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.50evenly matched on net striking+0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Johny HendricksKelvin Gastelum

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Johny Hendricks(10 fights)Kelvin Gastelum(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -129.1|Blue +129.1

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -77.0|Blue +77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Johny HendricksTargetKelvin Gastelum

By target zone

38% acc · 73%

Head

42% acc · 72%

71% acc · 7%

Body

86% acc · 15%

88% acc · 20%

Leg

100% acc · 13%

By position

43% acc · 83%

Distance

114

49% acc · 92%

55% acc · 17%

Clinch

71% acc · 8%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Johny Hendricks rounds

even

Kelvin Gastelum rounds

Round 1Kelvin Gastelum edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:31

51Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Johny Hendricks edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns1

Control1:02

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Round 3Kelvin Gastelum edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:36

46Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

70 / 157

Sig Strikes

124 / 249

44.7%

Sig Str %

48.3%

90 / 177

Total Strikes

134 / 259

1 / 5

TDs

0 / 1

16.5%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:09

Ctrl Time

0:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Kelvin Gastelum	51 / 92	55 / 96	0 / 0
1	Johny Hendricks	14 / 31	22 / 39	0 / 0
2	Kelvin Gastelum	27 / 63	29 / 65	0 / 0
2	Johny Hendricks	25 / 54	32 / 61	1 / 3
3	Kelvin Gastelum	46 / 94	50 / 98	0 / 1
3	Johny Hendricks	31 / 72	36 / 77	0 / 2

Johny Hendricks

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights19

Kelvin Gastelum

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights24