← All fights/Event page

Middleweight

3 Rounds

Johny Hendricks won · U-DEC R3

Elo1362

Elo1368

Johny HendricksvsHector LombardUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Browne · Sunday, February 19, 2017Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada

Official fight result

Johny Hendricks won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJohny Hendricks: WrestlervsHector Lombard: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Johny Hendricks wins(73.5%)

Actual result: Johny Hendricks wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Johny Hendricks at +110 American odds

+$110 profit

$210 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Johny Hendricks enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Hector Lombard enters on a 5-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Johny Hendricks

Red Corner

Hector Lombard

Blue Corner

+110

(48%)

Vegas Odds

-130

(57%)

1362

Elo

1368

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'9"

175.26 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Johny HendricksL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Stephen Thompson · Feb 16

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Jul 16

vs Neil Magny · Dec 16

KOvs Tim Boetsch · Jun 17

KOvs Paulo Costa · Nov 17

latest

Hector LombardL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Neil Magny · Mar 16

KOvs Dan Henderson · Jun 16

KOvs Anthony Smith · Sep 17

vs CB Dollaway · Mar 18

vs Thales Leites · Sep 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Johny HendricksMetricHector Lombard

3.49

Strikes / min

3.02

3.99

Strikes absorbed / min

3.35

53%

Strike defense

53%

3.83

TDs / 15 min

1.69

63%

Takedown defense

77%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.50evenly matched on net striking-0.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Johny HendricksHector Lombard

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Johny Hendricks(10 fights)Hector Lombard(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -5.2|Blue +5.2

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -209.0|Blue +209.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Johny HendricksTargetHector Lombard

By target zone

29% acc · 63%

Head

28% acc · 59%

70% acc · 14%

Body

53% acc · 22%

80% acc · 24%

Leg

88% acc · 19%

By position

31% acc · 75%

Distance

34% acc · 89%

87% acc · 25%

Clinch

80% acc · 11%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Johny Hendricks rounds

even

Hector Lombard rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:27Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:29Control

Round 3Johny Hendricks edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:06Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

51 / 136

Sig Strikes

37 / 103

38.7%

Sig Str %

34%

69 / 155

Total Strikes

43 / 109

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 9

—

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

2:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Hector Lombard	6 / 24	12 / 30	1 / 4
1	Johny Hendricks	11 / 24	19 / 33	0 / 0
2	Hector Lombard	17 / 41	17 / 41	0 / 3
2	Johny Hendricks	19 / 54	27 / 62	0 / 0
3	Hector Lombard	14 / 38	14 / 38	1 / 2
3	Johny Hendricks	21 / 58	23 / 60	0 / 0

Johny Hendricks

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights19

Hector Lombard

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights11