Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Johnny Walker won · KO/TKO

Elo1495

Elo1519

Johnny WalkervsRyan SpannUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · Saturday, September 19, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Johnny Walker won

KO/TKO

Style matchupJohnny Walker: Well-roundedvsRyan Spann: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Ryan Spann wins(52.7%)

Actual result: Johnny Walker wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ryan Spann at +100 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Johnny Walker is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Ryan Spann has lost 50% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Johnny Walker

Red Corner

Ryan Spann

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+100

(50%)

1495

Elo

1519

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'6"

Height

6'5"

208.28 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Johnny Walker

oldest →

vs Anthony Smith · May 23

KOvs Magomed Ankalaev · Jan 24

KOvs Volkan Oezdemir · Jun 24

KOvs Zhang Mingyang · Aug 25

DECvs Dominick Reyes · Apr 26

latest

Ryan SpannW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Apr 24

SUBvs Ovince Saint Preux · Oct 24

KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Mar 25

SUBvs Lukasz Brzeski · Jul 25

KOvs Marcus Buchecha · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Johnny WalkerMetricRyan Spann

3.90

Strikes / min

3.11

2.99

Strikes absorbed / min

3.92

46%

Strike defense

43%

0.36

TDs / 15 min

1.21

57%

Takedown defense

59%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

1.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.91Δ 1.72 — meaningful gap-0.81

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Johnny WalkerRyan Spann

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Johnny Walker(10 fights)Ryan Spann(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -24.1|Blue +24.1

Recent Form

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Johnny WalkerTargetRyan Spann

By target zone

89% acc · 92%

Head

54% acc · 100%

50% acc · 4%

Body

100% acc · 4%

Leg

By position

80% acc · 15%

Distance

43% acc · 43%

Clinch

88% acc · 85%

Ground

67% acc · 57%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Johnny Walker rounds

even

Ryan Spann rounds

Round 1Ryan Spann edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:40

Knockdowns0

7Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:46Control

2Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 30

Sig Strikes

7 / 13

86%

Sig Str %

53%

30 / 34

Total Strikes

10 / 16

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 2

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:40

Ctrl Time

1:46

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ryan Spann	7 / 13	10 / 16	2 / 2	0
1	Johnny Walker	26 / 30	30 / 34	0 / 0	0

Johnny Walker

StanceOrthodox

Height78.0"

Reach82.0"

Fights14

Ryan Spann

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights17