← All fights/Event page

Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Nikita Krylov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1495

Elo1485

Johnny WalkervsNikita KrylovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · Saturday, March 14, 2020Brasilia, Distrito Federal, Brazil

Official fight result

Nikita Krylov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJohnny Walker: Well-roundedvsNikita Krylov: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Johnny Walker wins(68.1%)

Actual result: Nikita Krylov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Johnny Walker at -137 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Johnny Walker has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Johnny Walker

Red Corner

Nikita Krylov

Blue Corner

-137

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+127

(44%)

1495

Elo

1485

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'6"

Height

6'3"

208.28 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Johnny Walker

oldest →

vs Anthony Smith · May 23

KOvs Magomed Ankalaev · Jan 24

KOvs Volkan Oezdemir · Jun 24

KOvs Zhang Mingyang · Aug 25

DECvs Dominick Reyes · Apr 26

latest

Nikita Krylov

oldest →

SUBvs Ryan Spann · Mar 23

KOvs Dominick Reyes · Apr 25

KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Jul 25

KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Jan 26

KOvs Robert Whittaker · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Johnny WalkerMetricNikita Krylov

3.90

Strikes / min

4.36

2.99

Strikes absorbed / min

2.59

46%

Strike defense

47%

0.36

TDs / 15 min

2.05

57%

Takedown defense

53%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.91evenly matched on net striking+1.77

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Johnny WalkerNikita Krylov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Johnny Walker(10 fights)Nikita Krylov(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +9.3|Blue -9.3

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Johnny WalkerTargetNikita Krylov

By target zone

73% acc · 89%

Head

78% acc · 84%

67% acc · 5%

Body

86% acc · 13%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

50% acc · 2%

By position

71% acc · 27%

Distance

56% acc · 22%

89% acc · 22%

Clinch

67% acc · 4%

70% acc · 51%

Ground

89% acc · 73%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Johnny Walker rounds

even

Nikita Krylov rounds

Round 1Nikita Krylov edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:26

16Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:52Control

Round 2Nikita Krylov edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control1:14

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:37Control

Round 3Nikita Krylov edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:46

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:50Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 50

Sig Strikes

45 / 58

71.7%

Sig Str %

77%

91 / 112

Total Strikes

128 / 148

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 8

—

TD %

46.7%

Sub Att

Rev

2:26

Ctrl Time

11:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Nikita Krylov	16 / 22	45 / 51	2 / 5
1	Johnny Walker	19 / 22	44 / 47	0 / 0
2	Nikita Krylov	12 / 17	33 / 40	1 / 1
2	Johnny Walker	12 / 19	26 / 36	0 / 0
3	Nikita Krylov	17 / 19	50 / 57	0 / 2
3	Johnny Walker	6 / 9	21 / 29	0 / 0

Johnny Walker

StanceOrthodox

Height78.0"

Reach82.0"

Fights14

Nikita Krylov

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights23