Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Johnny Walker won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1495

Elo1391

Johnny WalkervsJustin LedetUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 · Saturday, February 2, 2019Fortaleza, Ceara, Brazil

Official fight result

Johnny Walker won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:15

Style matchupJohnny Walker: Well-roundedvsJustin Ledet: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Johnny Walker wins(54.1%)

Actual result: Johnny Walker wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Johnny Walker at -235 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Justin Ledet enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Johnny Walker is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Justin Ledet has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Johnny Walker has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Johnny Walker

Red Corner

Justin Ledet

Blue Corner

-235

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+195

(34%)

1495

Elo

1391

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'6"

Height

6'4"

208.28 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Johnny Walker

oldest →

vs Anthony Smith · May 23

KOvs Magomed Ankalaev · Jan 24

KOvs Volkan Oezdemir · Jun 24

KOvs Zhang Mingyang · Aug 25

DECvs Dominick Reyes · Apr 26

latest

Justin LedetL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Mark Godbeer · Nov 16

DECvs Zu Anyanwu · Sep 17

vs Aleksandar Rakic · Jul 18

vs Aleksa Camur · Jan 20

KOvs Dustin Jacoby · Oct 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Johnny WalkerMetricJustin Ledet

3.90

Strikes / min

3.35

2.99

Strikes absorbed / min

4.82

46%

Strike defense

49%

0.36

TDs / 15 min

0.23

57%

Takedown defense

42%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.91Δ 2.38 — meaningful gap-1.47

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Johnny WalkerJustin Ledet

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Johnny Walker(10 fights)Justin Ledet(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +103.9|Blue -103.9

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red -3.5|Blue +3.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -118.0|Blue +118.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Johnny WalkerTargetJustin Ledet

By target zone

86% acc · 86%

Head

0% acc

Body

100% acc · 14%

Leg

By position

100% acc · 57%

Distance

0% acc

Clinch

75% acc · 43%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Johnny Walker rounds

even

Justin Ledet rounds

Round 1Johnny Walker edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:04

Knockdowns1

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 8

Sig Strikes

0 / 4

87%

Sig Str %

7 / 8

Total Strikes

0 / 4

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:04

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Justin Ledet	0 / 4	0 / 4	0 / 0	0
1	Johnny Walker	7 / 8	7 / 8	0 / 0	0

Johnny Walker

StanceOrthodox

Height78.0"

Reach82.0"

Fights14

Justin Ledet

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights7