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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Johnny Walker won · SUB R1
Elo1495
Elo1498
Ion Cutelaba

Johnny WalkervsIon CutelabaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · Saturday, September 10, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Johnny Walker won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:37

Style matchupJohnny Walker: Well-roundedvsIon Cutelaba: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Johnny Walker wins(55.0%)

Actual result: Johnny Walker wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Johnny Walker at +155 American odds

+$155 profit

$255 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Ion Cutelaba has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Ion Cutelaba (53.5%).
  • Johnny Walker has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Johnny Walker
Red Corner
VS
Ion Cutelaba
Blue Corner
+155
(39%)
Vegas Odds
-180
(64%)
1495
Elo
1498
34
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'6"
Height
6'1"
208.28 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Johnny Walker
oldest →
W
vs Anthony Smith · May 23
L
KOvs Magomed Ankalaev · Jan 24
L
KOvs Volkan Oezdemir · Jun 24
W
KOvs Zhang Mingyang · Aug 25
L
DECvs Dominick Reyes · Apr 26
latest
Ion Cutelaba
oldest →
W
vs Ivan Erslan · Sep 24
W
SUBvs Ibo Aslan · Feb 25
L
vs Modestas Bukauskas · May 25
W
SUBvs Oumar Sy · Mar 26
L
KOvs Navajo Stirling · Jun 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Johnny WalkerMetricIon Cutelaba
3.90
Strikes / min
4.23
2.99
Strikes absorbed / min
3.28
46%
Strike defense
47%
0.36
TDs / 15 min
3.76
57%
Takedown defense
75%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.91evenly matched on net striking+0.95

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1507 vs 1496Strikes3.9 vs 4.4Takedowns0.5 vs 4.2Sub Atts0.90 vs 0.00Form-0.7 vs -0.3
Johnny WalkerIon Cutelaba

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Johnny Walker(10 fights)Ion Cutelaba(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -2.9|Blue +2.9
Recent Form
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Striker Score
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red +84.0|Blue -84.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Johnny WalkerTargetIon Cutelaba

By target zone

3
100% acc · 100%
Head
2
50% acc · 67%
0
Body
0
0
Leg
1
100% acc · 33%

By position

1
100% acc · 33%
Distance
2
100% acc · 67%
1
100% acc · 33%
Clinch
0
0% acc
1
100% acc · 33%
Ground
1
50% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Johnny Walker rounds
1
even
0
Ion Cutelaba rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns1
Control2:10
3Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:02Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
3 / 3
Sig Strikes
3 / 5
100%
Sig Str %
60%
17 / 21
Total Strikes
17 / 23
1 / 1
TDs
1 / 1
100%
TD %
100%
3
Sub Att
0
1
Rev
0
2:10
Ctrl Time
2:02

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ion Cutelaba3 / 517 / 231 / 10
1Johnny Walker3 / 317 / 211 / 13

Johnny Walker

StanceOrthodox
Height78.0"
Reach82.0"
Fights14

Ion Cutelaba

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights20