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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Tony Gravely won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1478
Johnny Munoz
Elo1455

Johnny MunozvsTony GravelyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · Saturday, June 4, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tony Gravely won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:08

Style matchupJohnny Munoz: WrestlervsTony Gravely: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Tony Gravely wins(72.2%)

Actual result: Tony Gravely wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tony Gravely at -125 American odds

+$80 profit

$180 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Johnny Munoz has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Johnny Munoz
Red Corner
VS
Tony Gravely
Blue Corner
+105
(49%)
Vegas Odds
-125
(56%)
1478
Elo
1455
33
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'5"
180.34 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Johnny MunozL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Nate Maness · Aug 20
W
SUBvs Jamey Simmons · Aug 21
W
vs Liudvik Sholinian · Nov 22
L
vs Daniel Santos · Jun 23
L
vs Aoriqileng · Oct 23
latest
Tony GravelyL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Anthony Birchak · Apr 21
L
KOvs Nate Maness · Sep 21
W
vs Saimon Oliveira · Jan 22
L
vs Javid Basharat · Sep 22
L
vs Victor Henry · Mar 23
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Johnny MunozMetricTony Gravely
2.44
Strikes / min
3.82
2.66
Strikes absorbed / min
4.47
55%
Strike defense
44%
2.40
TDs / 15 min
5.40
45%
Takedown defense
52%
1.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.22evenly matched on net striking-0.65

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1517Strikes2.4 vs 3.8Takedowns2.4 vs 5.4Sub Atts1.80 vs 0.30Form0.5 vs 0.3
Johnny MunozTony Gravely

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Johnny Munoz(6 fights)Tony Gravely(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +23.3|Blue -23.3
Recent Form
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff
Red +168.0|Blue -168.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Johnny MunozTargetTony Gravely

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
4
33% acc · 80%
0
Body
0
2
100% acc · 100%
Leg
1
33% acc · 20%

By position

2
29% acc · 100%
Distance
2
18% acc · 40%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
3
75% acc · 60%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Johnny Munoz rounds
0
even
1
Tony Gravely rounds
Round 1Tony Gravely edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
2 / 7
Sig Strikes
5 / 15
28%
Sig Str %
33%
2 / 7
Total Strikes
6 / 16
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:03

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Tony Gravely5 / 156 / 160 / 00
1Johnny Munoz2 / 72 / 70 / 10

Johnny Munoz

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights6

Tony Gravely

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights8